Simulating the NHL Playoffs 2014-2015
For those who have followed me on my old blog, I have a simulator that takes some of the stats from the regular season to predict what will happen in the playoffs.
This year, I finally put a little time rewriting the simulator. Instead of using the total goals for and goals against, I used GF60 and GA60 from hockey analysis. Unlike my old blog, I think I'm going to keep updating this post with each successive round just to keep things a little more organised.
Round 1
(Posted on April 15, prior to the first round of play).
So here are your first round predictions (including chances of reaching the later rounds). I also included the final SportsClubStats (SCS) win cup % for comparison purposes.
| Reach Rd 2 | Reach Rd 3 | Reach Final | Win Cup | SportsClubStats | ||
| STL | 55.44% | 25.19% | 15.72% | 7.73% | 10.70% | |
| MIN | 44.56% | 17.91% | 10.37% | 4.55% | 5.00% | |
| NSH | 60.34% | 36.91% | 25.91% | 14.98% | 4.30% | |
| CHI | 39.66% | 19.99% | 12.04% | 5.70% | 6.80% | |
| ANA | 41.90% | 25.62% | 9.25% | 3.42% | 2.80% | |
| WIN | 58.10% | 39.78% | 17.57% | 7.94% | 4.20% | |
| VAN | 45.77% | 14.81% | 3.59% | 0.92% | 3.50% | |
| CGY | 54.23% | 19.78% | 5.55% | 1.60% | 4.60% | |
| MON | 61.91% | 29.12% | 14.80% | 7.59% | 6.40% | |
| OTT | 38.09% | 13.29% | 5.11% | 2.01% | 3.50% | |
| TBL | 71.27% | 45.46% | 27.25% | 16.53% | 13.10% | |
| DET | 28.73% | 12.13% | 4.63% | 1.81% | 2.50% | |
| NYR | 65.65% | 44.93% | 25.93% | 15.63% | 21.10% | |
| PIT | 34.35% | 18.05% | 7.62% | 3.40% | 1.80% | |
| WSH | 52.40% | 20.13% | 8.20% | 3.55% | 7.20% | |
| NYI | 47.60% | 16.89% | 6.46% | 2.63% | 2.60% | |
Some pretty interesting spots. Tampa Bay comes out as the surprising favourite to win the cup, thanks I think primarily due to its first round matchup against Detroit (This is not the Detroit team of old, at least according to their GF60/GA60 stats).
Nashville is the clear favourite in the West due to their very strong goal differential. Comparing to SCS, it's pretty obvious that whatever they use for their simulations does not use goal differential as the primary simulation mechanism. I'm pretty curious now what they do use.
Winnipeg looks like a bit of a sleeper pick from these numbers - I think largely due to their relatively soft bracket (getting by Anaheim is a bit of a challenge, but then a matchup against Vancouver or Calgary is a good spot to be in).
And the Rangers look like big favourites to come out of their division. So will we see a NSH v WIN and TBL v NYR semifinals?
Round 1 Results (posted April 30)
| Reach Rd 2 | Reach Rd 3 | Reach Final | Win Cup | SportsClubStats | ||
| STL | 55.44% | 25.19% | 15.72% | 7.73% | 10.70% | |
| MIN | 44.56% | 17.91% | 10.37% | 4.55% | 5.00% | |
| NSH | 60.34% | 36.91% | 25.91% | 14.98% | 4.30% | |
| CHI | 39.66% | 19.99% | 12.04% | 5.70% | 6.80% | |
| ANA | 41.90% | 25.62% | 9.25% | 3.42% | 2.80% | |
| WIN | 58.10% | 39.78% | 17.57% | 7.94% | 4.20% | |
| VAN | 45.77% | 14.81% | 3.59% | 0.92% | 3.50% | |
| CGY | 54.23% | 19.78% | 5.55% | 1.60% | 4.60% | |
| MON | 61.91% | 29.12% | 14.80% | 7.59% | 6.40% | |
| OTT | 38.09% | 13.29% | 5.11% | 2.01% | 3.50% | |
| TBL | 71.27% | 45.46% | 27.25% | 16.53% | 13.10% | |
| DET | 28.73% | 12.13% | 4.63% | 1.81% | 2.50% | |
| NYR | 65.65% | 44.93% | 25.93% | 15.63% | 21.10% | |
| PIT | 34.35% | 18.05% | 7.62% | 3.40% | 1.80% | |
| WSH | 52.40% | 20.13% | 8.20% | 3.55% | 7.20% | |
| NYI | 47.60% | 16.89% | 6.46% | 2.63% | 2.60% | |
If you picked the team that the simulator gave a >50% edge to, we would've gone 5 for 8, with all the misses in the Western conference. A bit of a rough start to this playoff season. Let's see what we do for round 2!
Round 2
(posted on April 30)
| Reach Rd 3 | Reach Final | Win Cup | |
| MIN | 0.467262 | 0.284583 | 0.114486 |
| CHI | 0.532738 | 0.338333 | 0.1484 |
| ANA | 0.592412 | 0.243603 | 0.081402 |
| CGY | 0.407588 | 0.133481 | 0.034306 |
| MON | 0.409253 | 0.191011 | 0.108007 |
| TBL | 0.590747 | 0.329915 | 0.218204 |
| NYR | 0.669791 | 0.358398 | 0.236204 |
| WSH | 0.330209 | 0.120676 | 0.058991 |
The cup favourites are now both Eastern teams: Tampa Bay and the Rangers both enjoy huge edges in this round. The West is a bit more random with Calgary having a pretty uphill battle, and Chicago given a slight edge to win the cup.
Should be an interesting 2nd round. As a hockey fan, I'll be rooting for the Canadiens, although I think they're in tough against the Lightning.
Round 2 Results (posted May 14)
| Reach Rd 3 | Reach Final | Win Cup | |
| MIN | 0.467262 | 0.284583 | 0.114486 |
| CHI | 0.532738 | 0.338333 | 0.1484 |
| ANA | 0.592412 | 0.243603 | 0.081402 |
| CGY | 0.407588 | 0.133481 | 0.034306 |
| MON | 0.409253 | 0.191011 | 0.108007 |
| TBL | 0.590747 | 0.329915 | 0.218204 |
| NYR | 0.669791 | 0.358398 | 0.236204 |
| WSH | 0.330209 | 0.120676 | 0.058991 |
This time around the simulator picks the winner as the favourite in all four series, so we improve to 9 for 12 overall so far. It almost wasn't the result though. Washington gave the Rangers a pretty tough go of it. Despite the Rangers having serious difficulty scoring goals they managed to eke out three consecutive wins to take the series back. Let's check out the next round shall we?
Round 3
(posted on May 14)
| Reach Final | Win Cup | |
| CHI | 0.6018 | 0.241522 |
| ANA | 0.3982 | 0.117455 |
| TBL | 0.50152 | 0.322258 |
| NYR | 0.49848 | 0.318765 |
The simulator thinks that an Eastern team will win the cup this year with greater than 60% shot to win the cup. Who will it be, that is the question!
I'm involved in two hockey pools this year, and my live teams are the Lightning and the Rangers (one in each pool). So I'm guaranteed a finals shot in one of my pools. Here's hoping I win one!
Round 3 Results (posted May 31)
| Reach Final | Win Cup | |
| CHI | 0.6018 | 0.241522 |
| ANA | 0.3982 | 0.117455 |
| TBL | 0.50152 | 0.322258 |
| NYR | 0.49848 | 0.318765 |
It went to the wire in both series, but the simulator "picked" the winner in both series (although the Tampa Bay was pretty close to a straight up coin flip). So we improve to a 11 for 14 prediction rate for this round.
Stanley Cup Finals
(posted on May 31)
| Win Cup | |
| CHI | 0.400347 |
| TBL | 0.599653 |
So the simulator picks Tampa Bay as 60% favourites for this finals. I backed Tampa Bay in one of my playoff pools, so here's hoping they take it down!
Final Results (posted June 17)
| Win Cup | |
| CHI | 0.400347 |
| TBL | 0.599653 |
So Chicago wins their third cup in six years and basically has a modern dynasty on their hands. Congrats to them, even though it cost me from winning my playoff pool. Ahh well. To my eye, the Lightning got a little unlucky in a couple of those games.
Anyway, the simulator goes 11 for 15 this year or 73.33% which isn't too bad. I've been doing this for awhile so previous records look like this. Cup winners and original simulator prediction of cup win % included for interest's sake.
2015: 11/15 (73.33%) - Chicago Blackhawks (5.7%) 2014: 7/15 (46.67%) - Los Angeles Kings (4.6%) 2013: 12/15 (80.00%) - Chicago Blackhawks (36.8%) 2012: 7/15 (46.67%) - Los Angeles Kings (2.5%) 2011: 11/15 (73.33%) - Boston Bruins (13.6%) 2010: 10/15 (66.67%) - Chicago Blackhawks (16.6%) 2009: 8/15 (53.33%) - Pittsburgh Penguins (3.6%) 2008: 14/15 (93.33%) - Detroit Red Wings (33.0%) Total: 80/120 (66.67%)
See you next year!