Simulating the 2016-2017 NHL Playoffs
As with prior years, I've run my NHL playoff simulator for the playoffs that start tonight. Here's the table, including the Sports Club Stats predicted percentage to win the cup for reference.
| Win Round 1 | Win Round 2 | Win Round 3 | Win Cup | SCS | |
| Montreal | 46.90% | 26.60% | 8.90% | 4.20% | 4.00% |
| Ottawa | 38.90% | 13.70% | 3.10% | 1.10% | 0.80% |
| Boston | 61.10% | 28.00% | 8.70% | 3.90% | 3.40% |
| NY Rangers | 53.10% | 31.80% | 11.40% | 5.80% | 5.70% |
| Washington | 81.70% | 53.60% | 40.30% | 28.80% | 32.10% |
| Pittsburgh | 43.50% | 16.20% | 9.50% | 5.20% | 6.10% |
| Columbus | 56.50% | 24.60% | 15.70% | 9.40% | 8.20% |
| Toronto | 18.30% | 5.60% | 2.40% | 0.90% | 1.10% |
| Chicago | 57.30% | 25.30% | 13.40% | 5.30% | 5.10% |
| Minnesota | 67.90% | 43.80% | 28.20% | 14.30% | 14.00% |
| St Louis | 32.10% | 15.00% | 7.00% | 2.40% | 1.90% |
| Nashville | 42.70% | 15.90% | 7.30% | 2.40% | 2.30% |
| Anaheim | 58.80% | 28.20% | 12.50% | 4.60% | 4.80% |
| Edmonton | 55.90% | 32.60% | 15.90% | 6.60% | 6.60% |
| San Jose | 44.10% | 23.00% | 9.90% | 3.50% | 2.60% |
| Calgary | 41.20% | 16.10% | 5.70% | 1.60% | 1.30% |
Washington is once again the odds on favourite to win the cup this year. Maybe they'll do it this time? They have to get out of a pretty tough group though: the winner of that Pittsburgh-Columbus match is going to give them a run for their money I think.
Meanwhile, the Rangers are the favourites to upset the divisional leaders Montreal. This playoff format is so weird with one of the best teams in the East ending up in a wildcard spot due to the strength of one division (and the weakness of the other).
In the West, Minnesota looks like a sleeper pick based on their finishing position. The thing that's interesting about them is they haven't played well down the stretch. But they're still a scary team on paper.
In other news, my hometown Edmonton Oilers are in the playoffs for the first time since I started running this playoff simulator. Hard to believe I've been doing this since 2008, and all this time my team hasn't made the playoffs. Here's hoping they last at least a few rounds into the post season!
Round 2 (Posted April 25)
First a quick review of round 1: Hooray for the Oilers!
| Win Round 1 | Win Round 2 | Win Round 3 | Win Cup | SCS | |
| Montreal | 46.90% | 26.60% | 8.90% | 4.20% | 4.00% |
| Ottawa | 38.90% | 13.70% | 3.10% | 1.10% | 0.80% |
| Boston | 61.10% | 28.00% | 8.70% | 3.90% | 3.40% |
| NY Rangers | 53.10% | 31.80% | 11.40% | 5.80% | 5.70% |
| Washington | 81.70% | 53.60% | 40.30% | 28.80% | 32.10% |
| Pittsburgh | 43.50% | 16.20% | 9.50% | 5.20% | 6.10% |
| Columbus | 56.50% | 24.60% | 15.70% | 9.40% | 8.20% |
| Toronto | 18.30% | 5.60% | 2.40% | 0.90% | 1.10% |
| Chicago | 57.30% | 25.30% | 13.40% | 5.30% | 5.10% |
| Minnesota | 67.90% | 43.80% | 28.20% | 14.30% | 14.00% |
| St Louis | 32.10% | 15.00% | 7.00% | 2.40% | 1.90% |
| Nashville | 42.70% | 15.90% | 7.30% | 2.40% | 2.30% |
| Anaheim | 58.80% | 28.20% | 12.50% | 4.60% | 4.80% |
| Edmonton | 55.90% | 32.60% | 15.90% | 6.60% | 6.60% |
| San Jose | 44.10% | 23.00% | 9.90% | 3.50% | 2.60% |
| Calgary | 41.20% | 16.10% | 5.70% | 1.60% | 1.30% |
The simulator doesn't do great this year, predicting only 4/8 for 50%. Its only "sleeper" pick to work out was the Rangers. This year's first round was a lot of one-goal games - many of them going to overtime for resolution. NHL parity coming into play?
Let's look ahead to the next round:
| Win Round | Win Round | Win Cup | |
| Ottawa | 33.50% | 6.90% | 2.60% |
| NY Rangers | 66.50% | 22.30% | 12.20% |
| Washington | 69.30% | 52.60% | 39.60% |
| Pittsburgh | 30.70% | 18.20% | 10.70% |
| St Louis | 50.70% | 22.20% | 7.10% |
| Nashville | 49.30% | 21.30% | 6.60% |
| Anaheim | 45.30% | 24.40% | 8.60% |
| Edmonton | 54.70% | 32.20% | 12.60% |
The cup favourites are still the Capitals, but anecdotally they are in tough against the defending champions. The Capitals escaped a round one series against the Leafs that was way closer than they would've liked. That's probably the series to watch of this round (unless you're an Oiler fan like me!).
The St Louis/Nashville series looks too close to call: I almost wonder if we should just not score or ding the simulator for that given that it thinks they are so close.
Obviously, I'm happy with the Oilers having the highest Western conference chance to take home the Cup. It's a long road, but this team has shown resiliency throughout the regular season and now through the first round. They are a pleasure to watch.
And that Ottawa series may look lopsided, but I ruled Ottawa out too early. They are playing pretty well too - so look out there. They're running into a hot Lundqvist though so we'll see what happens!
Go Oilers Go!
Round 3 (Posted May 12)
Well, that was disappointing. The Oilers fell to the Ducks in a fairly dramatic serious with a little bit too much controversy from where I sit. But hey, I'm a biased fan. How else did we do in round 2?
| Win Round | Win Round | Win Cup | |
| Ottawa | 33.50% | 6.90% | 2.60% |
| NY Rangers | 66.50% | 22.30% | 12.20% |
| Washington | 69.30% | 52.60% | 39.60% |
| Pittsburgh | 30.70% | 18.20% | 10.70% |
| St Louis | 50.70% | 22.20% | 7.10% |
| Nashville | 49.30% | 21.30% | 6.60% |
| Anaheim | 45.30% | 24.40% | 8.60% |
| Edmonton | 54.70% | 32.20% | 12.60% |
Wow, that's a first. The simulator bricks the entire round and now is 4/12. This has been a strange playoffs... the Senators spent so little time in the lead against the Rangers, but managed a couple of miracle comebacks and well-timed goals to launch them into an unlikely conference final appearance. The Capitals continue to fail to beat the Penguins. That Nashville/St. Louis matchup was pretty close on paper and on the ice. And the Oilers went farther than anyone expected and now we're disappointed they didn't go all the way.
What does next round look like?
| Win Rd 3 | Win Cup | |
| Ottawa | 29.50% | 11.70% |
| Pittsburgh | 70.50% | 42.70% |
| Nashville | 45.90% | 19.80% |
| Anaheim | 54.10% | 25.70% |
Well, Pittsburgh pushed past their toughest opponent and now are big favourites to repeat as Stanley Cup Champions. Crazy. Still, Ottawa gave the Rangers a heap of trouble so let's see what happens. Maybe the simulator is picking the losing teams this year!
Given that the Oilers are out, I'll be following the playoffs a little less closely. It's tough to watch games when they start at 3 in the morning here!
Stanley Cup Final (Posted May 27)
The finals are here! Ottawa gave Pittsburgh a run for their money but in the end Pittsburgh pushed through to the finals. The Preds also knocked off the Ducks (YAY!), which leaves us here:
| Win Rd 3 | Win Cup | |
| Ottawa | 29.50% | 11.70% |
| Pittsburgh | 70.50% | 42.70% |
| Nashville | 45.90% | 19.80% |
| Anaheim | 54.10% | 25.70% |
So the simulator goes 1/2 here and 5/12 overall. Not a good year for the sim!
Here's what the final stacks up as:
| Win Cup | |
| Pittsburgh | 63.10% |
| Nashville | 36.90% |
It'll be an interesting final. Nashville is a good team, and I think they will give Pittsburgh a run for their money. I think it's pretty likely Pittsburgh wins the cup again this year though.