NHL Playoff Predictor 08-09 Round 4

Alright, one more go for the predictor! Pittsburgh_Penguins 0.547 0.214 Carolina_Hurricanes 0.453 0.158

Detroit_Red_Wings 0.488 0.305
Chicago_Blackhawks 0.512 0.322

1 for 2 on the conference finals... Pittsburgh, as expected, took it down, and the Hawks really didn't give the wings any trouble -- despite several games going to overtime. It didn't look to me like the Hawks had a shot at all in the games that I did watch. Oh well, guess I can't get 'em all right. The predictor is sitting at 8/14 with one series to go. How does the last round stack up?

Pittsburgh_Penguins 0.396
Detroit_Red_Wings 0.604

It's really hard not to bet on the Wings. They've been so dominant for so long. But the penguins are going to give them a harder time than last year, I expect. It should be a great series, at any rate!

Herald

NHL Playoff Predictor 08-09 Round 3

Well that last round didn't go to plan ... Here's the results:

Boston_Bruins 0.770 0.570 0.388
Washington_Capitals 0.506 0.166 0.072
Pittsburgh_Penguins 0.494 0.161 0.070
Carolina_Hurricanes 0.230 0.103 0.040

Detroit_Red_Wings 0.678 0.358 0.164
Vancouver_Canucks 0.405 0.190 0.073
Chicago_Blackhawks 0.595 0.337 0.159
Anaheim_Ducks 0.322 0.115 0.035

The Hurricanes play spoiler to the Bruins which makes my program off there. Not too sure how many people picked the 'Canes over the Bruins, but I don't think there were many. The Caps/Pens played an incredible series to 7 games, and it was as close as I (and my program) expected. Out west though, the program did much better with both the Red Wings and Blackhawks making it through as predicted. With this round done, giving us a 7/12 record. A couple of too close to call series, and the 'Canes pulling off a pair of upsets are a quick way to explain what happened so far this year.

What's up for the next round? The teams are quite evenly matched, but there's a bit of surprise pick for the west.

Pittsburgh_Penguins 0.547 0.214
Carolina_Hurricanes 0.453 0.158

Detroit_Red_Wings 0.488 0.305
Chicago_Blackhawks 0.512 0.322

That's right, the program likes the Hawks. This was the reason I went with the hawks and bruins in my playoff pools ... but thanks to the 'Canes, I now have no shot to win those.

Herald

NHL Playoff Predictor 08-09 Round 2

Alright, the first round of the playoffs is in the books, so lets review how the predictor did, shall we?

Boston_Bruins 0.814 0.634 0.458 0.308
Washington_Capitals 0.649 0.321 0.117 0.051
New_Jersey_Devils 0.603 0.339 0.143 0.070
Pittsburgh_Penguins 0.495 0.209 0.084 0.036
Philadelphia_Flyers 0.505 0.216 0.087 0.038
Carolina_Hurricanes 0.397 0.136 0.055 0.021
New_York_Rangers 0.351 0.073 0.027 0.008
Montreal_Canadiens 0.186 0.071 0.029 0.010

San_Jose_Sharks 0.706 0.474 0.276 0.145
Detroit_Red_Wings 0.720 0.435 0.227 0.110
Vancouver_Canucks 0.617 0.276 0.121 0.049
Chicago_Blackhawks 0.688 0.390 0.217 0.107
Calgary_Flames 0.312 0.118 0.044 0.014
St_Louis_Blues 0.383 0.124 0.042 0.012
Columbus_Blue_Jackets 0.280 0.083 0.031 0.009
Anaheim_Ducks 0.294 0.101 0.043 0.014

In summary, the predictor didn't do a bad job, but it did get 3 series wrong giving it a 5/8 record starting off this playoffs. The biggest upset was Anaheim over San Jose -- a series that San Jose apparently didn't even show up for. Besides that, the other two series that the predictor got wrong were really close. Carolina managed to hit runner-runner to win their series by forcing a game 7, and then scoring two goals to tie and go ahead late in the 3rd period. Thanks for screwing up my playoff pools, Carolina! The other series, my predictor had Pittsburgh and Philly only a few percentage points apart, and so I'm not really that concerned that it picked the wrong side there.

Looking ahead, here's the output for the next round:

Boston_Bruins 0.770 0.570 0.388
Washington_Capitals 0.506 0.166 0.072
Pittsburgh_Penguins 0.494 0.161 0.070
Carolina_Hurricanes 0.230 0.103 0.040

Detroit_Red_Wings 0.678 0.358 0.164
Vancouver_Canucks 0.405 0.190 0.073
Chicago_Blackhawks 0.595 0.337 0.159
Anaheim_Ducks 0.322 0.115 0.035

Boston has a huge edge going against Carolina, and Detroit has a similar edge against the ducks. But the other matchups are *much* closer. The program gives the slight edge to the Caps, but given how much trouble the Caps had with the Rangers, I wouldn't totally be surprised to see the Penguins move on. The Canucks/Blackhawks series isn't quite that close, and Chicago is certainly looking like a good option.

Herald

NHL Playoff Predictor 08-09

The NHL season is over for another year. Alas, my Oilers didn't make it, but it still is a fun time to run the playoff predictor for another season. Here's the numbers for the various teams. For an explanation, see here.

Boston_Bruins 0.814 0.634 0.458 0.308
Washington_Capitals 0.649 0.321 0.117 0.051
New_Jersey_Devils 0.603 0.339 0.143 0.070
Pittsburgh_Penguins 0.495 0.209 0.084 0.036
Philadelphia_Flyers 0.505 0.216 0.087 0.038
Carolina_Hurricanes 0.397 0.136 0.055 0.021
New_York_Rangers 0.351 0.073 0.027 0.008
Montreal_Canadiens 0.186 0.071 0.029 0.010

San_Jose_Sharks 0.706 0.474 0.276 0.145
Detroit_Red_Wings 0.720 0.435 0.227 0.110
Vancouver_Canucks 0.617 0.276 0.121 0.049
Chicago_Blackhawks 0.688 0.390 0.217 0.107
Calgary_Flames 0.312 0.118 0.044 0.014
St_Louis_Blues 0.383 0.124 0.042 0.012
Columbus_Blue_Jackets 0.280 0.083 0.031 0.009
Anaheim_Ducks 0.294 0.101 0.043 0.014

Kitchen Games Poker

Two nights ago, I got a chance to go to a kitchen game poker night that a coworker was putting on. The whole idea for the night was to play dealer's choice poker from the set of crazy games that people have come up with over the years. We weren't allowed to choose the casino standbys of hold'em, omaha, or 7 card stud. Instead, we played a series of games like Chicago, 727, Midnight Baseball, Mexican Sweat, etc. It's been a long time since I've played games like this. I've been playing Texas Hold'em pretty seriously for a couple of years, so it's kind of interesting to revisit some of these silly games to see if there is anything of interest. We played quite a few games, actually, that I'd like to note down for future reference because they were all quite fun. So here's the rules for some fun kitchen games that have a little depth to them.

  • 727: Players get two cards down, and one up. The aim of the game is to be the closest to the total of 7 or 27. Face cards count either ten points or half a point. An ace counts either 1 point or eleven. On each round, players are asked one at a time if they want one more card added face up to their hand, followed by a round of betting. If all players pass on a card, then the game is over, but otherwise another round is dealt. The game can last quite a few rounds! After the last round, players then simultaneously indicate whether they are attempting to win by being closest to 7, by being closest to 27, or to both. Half the pot is awarded to the closest to 7 (who indicated they were trying to win that side), and half is awarded to the the closest to 27 (who indicated they were trying to win that side). To win both, the players who indicated so have to be closest on both sides.
  • Auction: Each player is dealt two down cards. Then a card is turned up in the middle of the table for each player in the hand. Players then make a blind bid. The person who bids the most chooses the card they want. The next highest bid chooses the next card and so on. When all the cards are gone, another set of cards is dealt in the middle. This is repeated until all the players have 7 cards each. A round of betting happens after that. The person with the best high hand takes half the pot and the person with the best low hand takes the other half.
  • Ten Card Regrets: There are 5 rounds to this game. The object of the game is to partition 10 cards into two 5 card poker hands: one that is a low hand and one that is a high hand. On each round, players get two cards and must decide whether to put them on the left side to be part of the low hand, or on the right side to be part of the high hand. At the end, the person with the best high hand takes half the pot and the person with the best low hand takes half the pot.
  • Tic-Tac-Toe Hold'em/Omaha: Players are dealt two or four cards depending if they are playing the hold'em or omaha variant of the game. The key difference is the community cards are dealt in a 3x3 grid of cards. First, the flop is the four cards that form the sides of the grid. The turn is the four corner cards, and the river is the middle card of the grid. Players then make the best poker hand they can from the cards in their hand and any of 8 sets of three cards from the board. These sets are the three horizontal lines, three vertical lines, and the two diagonals. You can play Hold'em, Omaha High, or Omaha High Low.

These were my favourites from the night. Do you have any fun kitchen games I can deal next time?

Heraldk

Playoff Predictor, Stanley Cup Finals, 2008

Well my predictor is sure doing better than I did in my playoff pools. Going into the conference finals, it was 11 for 12 for predictions, and it got both of the conference finals right as well!

Pittsburgh_Penguins 0.579 0.204
Philadelphia_Flyers 0.421 0.119

Detroit_Red_Wings 0.681 0.498
Dallas_Stars 0.319 0.178

So what's left? The Stanley cup finals start tomorrow night and it should be a great series. So I gave my predictor one final spin to see what it says. It should come as no surprise that Detroit is heavily favoured by the program:

Pittsburgh_Penguins 0.295
Detroit_Red_Wings 0.705

While I'd be happy to say my program went 14/15, I'm still kinda rooting for the penguins. They are an exciting team to watch with a hell of a lot of talent at a very young age. Whoever wins though, the series should be one for the ages.

Heraldk

Playoff Predictor, Round 3 2008

Well the second round of the playoffs is over, and it's time to give my simulator another spin. First, let's look at the results from Round 2:

Montreal_Canadiens 0.616 0.348 0.147
Detroit_Red_Wings0.772 0.530 0.380
Philadelphia_Flyers 0.384 0.174 0.056
Colorado_Avalanche 0.228 0.091 0.039

Pittsburgh_Penguins 0.568 0.289 0.114
San_Jose_Sharks 0.483 0.180 0.094
New_York_Rangers 0.432 0.189 0.064
Dallas_Stars 0.517 0.199 0.107

The simulator goes 3 for 4 this round with the only one not going its way being the Montreal-Philly series. Overall, the simulator's predictions have been 11 for 12. Not too shabby huh?

Here are the predictions of my simulator for the conference finals:

Pittsburgh_Penguins 0.579 0.204
Philadelphia_Flyers 0.421 0.119

Detroit_Red_Wings 0.681 0.498
Dallas_Stars 0.319 0.178

So according to the program, Detroit has just shy of a 50% chance to win the whole thing, and their likely opponents is the Pittsburgh Penguins. Dallas and Pittsburgh are very close for 2nd place and Philly is not liked as much by the program.

See Round 2 and Round 1 for more information.

Heraldk

Playoff Predictions, Round 2, 2008

I posted before the first round playoffs started to present some output from my NHL playoff simulator. How'd it do at predicting the results? Well let's have a look. I removed the later round predictions from the last post just to clean this up and make it easier to read. Correct predictions are in bold.

Montreal_Canadiens 0.720
Detroit_Red_Wings 0.811
Boston_Bruins 0.280
Nashville_Predators 0.189
Pittsburgh_Penguins 0.590
San_Jose_Sharks 0.634
Ottawa_Senators 0.410
Calgary_Flames 0.366

Washington_Capitals 0.481
Minnesota_Wild 0.468
Philadelphia_Flyers 0.519
Colorado_Avalanche 0.532
New_Jersey_Devils 0.477
Anaheim_Ducks 0.414
New_York_Rangers 0.523
Dallas_Stars 0.586

Not bad huh? In every case, the favourite team of each match was the one that won. Three of the series went right down to the wire though, and I honestly thought Washington was going to beat Philly in game 7. They were a feel good story this year, along with the Oilers late season push to the playoffs that fell *just* short. San Jose and Montreal almost choked in the first round on series leads, but managed to pull through in the end.

So what does the simulator say for the next round? Once again the first column is the probability of winning that round. The second column is the probability of winning the conference final, and the third column is the probability of taking home the cup. This run is one million playoff simulations seeded with the results of the first playoff round.

Montreal_Canadiens 0.616 0.348 0.147
Pittsburgh_Penguins 0.568 0.289 0.114
New_York_Rangers 0.432 0.189 0.064
Philadelphia_Flyers 0.384 0.174 0.056

Detroit_Red_Wings 0.772 0.530 0.380
San_Jose_Sharks 0.483 0.180 0.094
Dallas_Stars 0.517 0.199 0.107
Colorado_Avalanche 0.228 0.091 0.039

Detroit, Dallas, Montreal, and Pittsburgh are the favourites according to the simulator. The only selection that is a bit surprising for this round is Dallas - but I'm not too surprised by that considering some of the numbers they put up this year. If they can shut down Thornton, they've got a pretty good shot at the conference finals.

Overall Detroit still has the highest probability of winning the cup, up to 38% now. Montreal and Pittsburgh are neck and neck for second place in probability of winning the cup. Dallas and San Jose are next and the last three have a 6% or less chance.

Now that the first round is out, the last remaining Canadian team is my second favourite team in the league: the Montreal Canadiens. So since the Oil are down and out, I'm cheering for them. Push that 14.7% edge boys!

Heraldk

Poker Night

Last Night, the CPRG met up for a poker night. We got a great turnout. 15 people bought in for ten bucks, and we played a NL freezeout. We had most of the members of the CPRG, a few people from Biotools, and a special guest: Bryce Paradis. Bryce is an amazing heads-up limit player who made 2.6 million dollars last year playing his game of choice. While he might've run hot at times, his profit graph is a beautiful exponential curve. It's been really cool to meet him and chat about poker related things. I did pretty well in the tournament, although I got shortstacked before the tables merged, and when they did I had to get lucky to double up a couple of times. I doubled through Bryce when my K9 rivered a pair against his AQ. Sorry, Bryce. Once I doubled up a couple times I managed to last until we passed the bubble. A few hands after everyone made the money, I got down to just 2K in chips with the blinds being 500/1000 and I had to post the big blind. The button called, and so did the small blind so I pushed my T9. The flop came QJJ, but I couldn't hit my straight against Duane's top pair of queens. Oh well, that's how it goes.

It was a great night, and I'm glad we got such a great turnout.

Heraldk

A Note on Gambling

I find it quite interesting noting the reactions of various people to gambling. As you probably know by now, I play a "little bit" of online poker, and have once in awhile been known to throw away some money playing blackjack or craps at a casino. I guess part of it is that my Dad's side of the family (which happens to be Chinese) is a group that loves to gamble. The other part of it is my love for any sort of game that involves some thought. There definitely is a bit of a thrill when you win at a gambling game. The more money at stake, the bigger the thrill when you win. I experienced this particular phenomena when I managed to get in on Mansion's $1000 free bet on the Pittsburgh Steelers at the start of last year's NFL football season. My friend Mike and I sat in front of the TV glued to it until the last play of the game and we were cheering like crazy throughout the game. When there's a fair amount of money on the line, it's exciting and fun.

So it's pretty easy to see how the gambling thing can be a problem. Fortunately for me, I know enough about the math behind the games that I know who has the edge most of the time. I would never slap down a $1K bet without first making sure that I was a) sure that my edge was there, and b) sure that I was okay with losing that money if worst came to worse.

So I don't really truly gamble in the same way that so many people get themselves in trouble do. I mostly play poker where I have definitely shown that I have an edge for the limits that I play. The couple of times I've done other gambling, I've either known I had an edge (like that $1K free bet at mansion where the edge was huge since it was free), or I've been willing to throw away $60 playing blackjack or craps for a couple hours.

Playing poker so much though has changed my outlook on a lot of things. One thing that is definitely different is my outlook on money is a little different. Once you've played poker for awhile, the face value of the currency you're playing with changes. It kind of loses its meaning in the sense that $100 is just a stack of chips you could lose or win at any given moment. It's kind of weird, but being able to sit down for a few hours and win a couple hundred dollars playing $100NL with .5/1 blinds makes it possible for me to add to my yearly revenue by a significant amount. It's only really bounded by the amount of time I have to play (which these days isn't that much, but I still get in a few sessions most weeks).

I kind of think that that effect of poker on my life has been a bit negative. It's hard to regain a respect for how much money is worth and how hard it is for most people to earn it after you've played online poker seriously for as long as I have (and I haven't really been playing that long really). The other negative aspect that is less severe for me is a bit of a crisis of conscience when you realize that the money you're winning is being taken from the wallets of people who may not have the self control to realize that they've lost next month's rent cheque. I deal with that thought with the following argument: "Will those players stop playing if I don't play? No. Well then I'm not changing anything by playing and being the one to take that money from them". Think that's faulty reasoning? Let me know. I'm curious about this issue. Without a doubt, it is a parasitic action, but I'm not sure what I can do about the other person's problem - particularly if they are an unknown person I'm facing through online poker (which is how I play the bulk of the time).

So there's some negative effects of playing poker, but there's a lot of reasons that I continue to play. The financial results certainly don't hurt, but it's not just that. I enjoy the competition. Playing these games lets me battle wits with other players and it can keep me sharp. When I'm playing my best, I'm seeing a lot of things happen in front of me and I can tell you a lot of what's going on.

Playing good poker also teaches patience and handling of tough times. The variance in poker is sky-high, and that means that to play well you have to be able to take the tough luck hands without letting them get to you or you'll start playing poorly (on tilt as it were). You need to be able to objectively back away from a particular situation and assess whether you indeed made the appropriate decisions regardless of the outcomes. This is a skill that helps a lot with life.

Poker contains a lot of mathematics, some of it simple, some of it quite a bit more complex. There is a lot you can do with math (despite people who will tell you that poker is primarily a psychological game), and learning to apply math to specific situations in poker is an essential skill to getting good at the game. Likewise, mathematics helps you with situations in life too. To tell you a quick story, my mom was telling me about some advice she heard some people were giving in a "learn what to do before retiring" seminar. The advice was that you should replace all your appliances a year before retiring, with the idea being that these appliances would then not likely need replacing throughout retirement saving a lot of stress. This advice struck me as pretty wrong considering that there was no part of this advice that took into consideration how old the existing appliances were. You might be replacing an appliance that is still working great and has an expected lifetime of 5 or 10 more years - effectively throwing away part of your existing investment in the appliances you currently own. And who's to say the appliances you buy aren't going to fail during your retirement? The proper solution here is to replace appliances that need replacing, and wait until your other appliances require replacing. Meanwhile, the money you didn't spend on new appliances gains interest. I fail to see why this is a worse solution.

My life has been affected drastically because of my time spent playing poker. For the most part, I think it has been for the better. I feel like I am able to keep myself sharper and more able to analyze situations objectively, and the monetary considerations certainly don't hurt.

Heraldk

Rock Band First Impressions

This past Saturday I had the chance to play rock band for the first time. How was this possible? Rock band doesn't come to Canada until December?! Well one of my friends managed to convince his friend to bring a copy up from the states with him when he came for convocation last week. So ... they had it at the party I was at on Saturday. I've enjoyed most of the guitar hero series. I played through guitar hero I and II and managed to pass all the songs on expert. I bought guitar hero III when it came out, and have enjoyed it to a certain extent, but the game has driven me mad on a number of different fronts. The first issue is the game seems to be hard for hard's sake. Rather than focusing on making the experience as realistic as possible, it seems to be catering to the people who enjoy showing off that they can pass a wicked impossible section at 100%. What this does is it makes it nigh impossible for a more casual player (which I think I fall into) to pass the game in a reasonable amount of time and at a reasonable frustration level. The other part of GH3 that I can't stand is the guitar duel mode. To me, the game is at it's best when it is you versus the challenge of a particular song. It's hard enough to pass some of the more difficult tracks, so why do you need to throw in a random element with an opponent making it yet harder?! Maybe this is just me being frustrated, but having passed GH1 and GH2 on expert, I have yet to even come close to passing GH3 on hard due to the final boss battle. Ugh.

So what do I think of rock band? It's awesome! The most obvious difference between the games, of course, is the added instruments. The drums are, in a word, sweet. The guitar requires a larger abstraction to make it accessible to a more general audience. That abstraction comes in the form of 5 buttons instead of 6 strings. The drums, on the other hand, require almost no abstraction. You have things to hit and a kick pedal, and that's all you need for a basic drum kit. So where skills in guitar hero won't likely transfer to a real guitar, I have a feeling skills on the drums in rock band will transfer okay to a real drum kit! Of course, there are things about real drums that aren't emulated, but a lot of the stuff looks like it should transfer. The drums are also a lot of fun, which doesn't hurt!

The vocals is the other obvious addition to rock band. On this spot, the Harmonix crew took it easy on the people who have trouble with pitch. The easy difficulty level is amazingly forgiving, which means that the biggest barrier to entry for the vocalist is just the potential embarrassment factor - which karaoke seems to have solved in a lot of places (with some help from some liquid courage). After you get over that, you don't really have to worry about failing your band mates by failing a song. The more adventurous singers can up the difficulty level to get a challenge. The one thing I don't like about the vocals part of it is the interface is a bit awkward. I'm used to reading music, and that might help me out quite a bit. I found it was almost a requirement to know a song pretty well before attempting a song or I had no hope to figure it out as it went.

There are some tweaks to the game that just feel right. One simple one is the game shows you how many stars your current performance is getting, and how far away you are from the next star. No more wondering how close you were to 5-starring a song! The other biggest change I noticed is you can still collect star power even when you are currently using it. This change just makes sense to me.

Anyways, I got a chance to play a few songs on each instrument, and I was thoroughly impressed. I especially can't wait to give the drums more of a try at some higher difficulty levels!

Heraldk

Super Mario Galaxy

Wow. This game is awesome. I've been spending every chance I get working my way through the latest Nintendo masterpiece. It isn't often I have trouble putting a game down, but this is one of those times. The game is fantastic! I never really played super mario 64, though I may have to at some point since there's a lot of people who say that it was really well done. I did get super mario sunshine, but I really didn't enjoy it. The controls were all wonky and I really didn't like the whole water backpack mechanism. So Super Mario Galaxy is my first real 3d mario title. Before this, my only experience with mario titles has been through Super Mario 1,2,3, and World -- all of which are excellent games (I played 3 the most out of all of them).

Galaxy is incredible. The worlds are varied and rich and full of an inventiveness in level design I haven't seen in a long time. The controls, while a little hard to get used to at times (especially in swimming levels) don't get in the way of enjoying the fun. There's a lot of levels, and all of them are simply beautiful!

Besides the main levels, there's also a bunch of challenge levels and mini games that are a lot of fun. The inventiveness continues throughout all of these games.

One of the things I've noticed early on as well is the music is wonderful. I am quite enjoying the whole experience, and this is probably one of those games that I finish way too fast because I play through it too quickly! Oh well, it'll be fun!

Heraldk

Recovery

It seems that after any big event, my work habits need a couple weeks to return to form. This has been the case after coming back from Vancouver -- for some reason I just have trouble ramping up to get things done again. Thankfully, today has seen some sign that these problems are starting to pass. I've started cleaning up the DIVAT code base, and have plans to make it a) more efficient, b) more correct, and c) implement a service for people to run the DIVAT analysis on their own matches. Another thing I've been trying to do is get some of the raw video files from the matches, and make a few highlight reels of quotes and good hands. The quote highlight reels I should be able to do now ... it's just going to take some time. I didn't realize just how long it takes to watch video to find good clips. I'm not really sure how people do this in real video editing, but my methods are extremely slow and time consuming. Ugh. So expect a highlight reel, but don't expect it soon.

What else? Things are going well in general. I've been playing super mario strikers on the Wii lately. It's a pretty fun game, but it's also frustrating. I can't seem to pass the "Crystal Cup" difficulty level. The game (which is soccer, mario style btw) format involves playing a 6 team double round robin tournament to seed a single elimination tournament amongst the top four places. When you win the two matches in the single elimination tournament, you get to play against a new team which you unlock if you win. The problem I'm having is that before each kickoff (at the start of the game and after a team scores), the level knocks out some number of players from each team for the entire time between kick offs. This seems to be entirely random ... but it seems to screw my team over every time. You see, each player on a team has his own unique traits. Some are slower, but have a better shot, some have a poor shot, but are fast and can pass really well. If you get stuck with just your slow scoring players, then the opposing team has the freedom to run circles around you ... and you give up a goal or two that way which so far has cost me the game more often than not. I've only managed to eke out one victory in this format in 7 games. So frustrating.

My roommate, Mike, has an interesting carrot-on-a-stick approach to writing his thesis. He's already bought an xbox 360, which sits under his desk until he finishes his first draft of his thesis. Incredibly, he's less than two weeks in and he's already got one chapter left to write. I can't really imagine how hard it is not to crack that box open and play some of the coolest next-gen games. Speaking of consoles, I'm pretty impressed with the xbox actually. I haven't played much of it, but it looks like it has certainly helped kill of the PS3. Of course, the jury is still out, but between the Wii and the 360, I really don't see the PS3 finding room to compete.

Diane and I have finally begun planning out our wedding. There's a pretty long list of things we've got to arrange. I don't suppose anyone has any suggestions on who we should go with for a photographer? It's really hard for me to tell how one person's photography style will suit Diane and I. I suppose the correct way to go about this is to meet with several photographers and see what they have to say for themselves and talk them through a typical wedding shoot. So that's the next thing we need to do. It's a little surreal, thinking about getting married. It doesn't seem like all that long ago when I was a socially awkward little kid running around. Now I'm a socially awkward person that's somehow getting married in a few months. Huh. Who would've thunk it?

It's been awhile since I last updated. Part of the reason for that is my shiny new Macbook pro which has had me spending time tweaking it and playing with my photo collection in Aperture. It's amazing how much time you can fill up just installing different programs and fiddling with settings. That might also be part of the reason I haven't been all that productive over the last couple of weeks. Fortunately, my productivity should increase now that I have my laptop all setup!

Anyways, I'm off to a games party tonight. Hope everyone is having a good summer and is planning on checking out the fringe this year. Should be fun!

Heraldk

Match Day 2

Alright, so I've got to get myself caught up here. The second match day was nuts, and a ton of stuff happened so let me see what I can remember. I got up fairly early excited about the match. We did so well on day one, that we kind of expected to win! Alas, that was not to be. I got in early enough to start setting up. Are room was moved to another one so that the one we were in first could be used for the keynote talks (which I haven't been able to attend). So we needed to make sure the new room suited our purposes. The hotel did an excellent job of setting it up though so there wasn't a huge amount of stuff to do. The first match got under way and Phil played a pretty decent game, but I don't think he played perfectly. Unfortunately for us, Ali did better than Polaris did and the humans took down the 3rd match. (for exact details check out the match blog I slaved over). After the loss we of course wanted to know what happened. It turns out that the bot we fielded had a bug in it that killed its learning abilities and so it got stuck playing a less effective bot. Ouch, that hurt.

The final match was looming, and we had to decide what bot to put in the seat. It took a long time to debate what to play, but we decided to try and play a safe bot -- the equilibrium bot that broke even in match 1. Unfortunately for us, Ali was just too brilliant and new how to take the bot down in the last match. We were disappointed, but we're looking for a rematch and are hungry for revenge. Both Ali and Phil heaped praise on the bot though saying that it was the most intense match of their lives and that they had to play the best poker they had ever played just to do what they did. Here's a youtube video I posted (thanks to Nolan for thinking quick and grabbing the camcorder for this section):

Awesome. Phil and Ali were so great. I can't wait to meet up with them again at the rematch! After the match, after the media finished their interviews and we packed up stuff in the room, and after we got autographs from the players (and signed programs for the players as well), the people who were too tired went to bed and everyone else went in seek of food, drink, and fun. All the people who decided to stay out ended up at an awesome restaurant called Bin 941. The food there was absolutely incredible. I spent a lot of time chatting with Ali and his girlfriend Ana. They're both so smart and really easy to get along with. I hope I was able to interest them even a tiny portion of how much they interested me. I loved getting the inside perspective on what it's like to be a professional high stakes poker player. I'm not seriously thinking about pursuing that, but it's nice to have a chance to hear about it from an insider.

Anyways, I stumbled back to our apartment condo half drunk and extremely happy with how the day had gone even though we lost the match. It was an extremely enjoyable experience and I would love to do it again. Even though I was exhausted. I got back and stumbled into bed around 3:45am ... only to have to get up in the morning to attend a round table poker meeting with other researchers who wrote poker bots for the AAAI bot competition. But that was another day.

Heraldk

Match Day 1

I got up relatively early this morning. I had had trouble sleeping due to being excited about today's match! After getting up and ready to go, we wandered over to the hotel to finish setting stuff up. Our match started at noon today with Ali Eslami taking the first match in the public room and Phil Laak in the private hotel room. After getting everything setup, the match began with a bunch of fanfare from Jonathan Schaeffer. For the blow by blow details, check out the official home page for the blog that I worked on throughout the two sessions in the public room. To make a long story short, we drew the first session and won the second session by a large margin. We won! Wow, that was an incredible feeling. I'm frazzled right now, so I need to head for bed. Let me quickly give some other hilights from today before I run. I didn't really get a chance to eat lunch before the match started so I was starving by the time the first session was done. When a group of four of us (Neil, Nolan, Josh and I) descended to the lobby to go find food we ran into Phil, Ali and Ali's girlfriend Ana who were about to pursue food themselves. So they asked us if we wanted to join them and we said ... YES of course! So we went to a restaurant called Cactus Luv Cafe and got to chat it up with these poker pros (all three are pros: Ana plays limits of $100/$200), and talk about technology, and research, and life. It was awesome. All three of them are incredibly nice people and I'm so glad I've gotten a chance to meet them and talk to them about stuff that interests me.

After the match I had to make some updates to the website and finish off the liveblogs for the day. I then ran DIVAT analysis on the matches, and those graphs will hit the webpages when I get the chance to do it. Ali seemed incredibly interested in the DIVAT analysis and where they went wrong. It'll be interesting to see how they adjust tomorrow.

Anyways, I'm off to bed. This is incredibly exciting, but I'm totally beat and I've got another long day of blogging ahead of me. Woohoo! G'nite all!

Heraldk

The Prep Day

IE: Vancouver, Day 2. Today was preparation day. I woke up without aid of my alarm at about 8:00 local time, and went and checked my email. The poker event that we're doing has been picked up by some major news sources including the Associated Press New York, and PokerNews.com. Weeeee!

Tomorrow's the big day, so we needed to get stuff setup. Darse, Alexandra and I went and got breakfast at a place below us that served some decent omelets with some huge crossiants on the side. Sweeet. We wandered over to the hotel where we met with Phil Laak -- he seems pretty distractable in person ... pretty much like on TV. It's pretty cool to meet someone you've seen on TV several times and never expected to meet. This is about as close as I want to get to fame -- I'm not really looking to be famous :P

Apple lent us 6 laptops so we picked them up from the hotel and went to go get them setup. Unfortunately, setting them up was quite a pain, and we didn't get away for lunch due to the room prep and the laptop setups. The press conference was at 1:00. We didn't get a huge turnout, but BBC had a radio crew there and there was a set of people from other news sources. We expect more media to show up during the event. We'll have to see how that turns out!

After the press conference we had a player's meeting in which we met up with Phil and Ali to discuss the rules and things to make the players comfortable. We want them to be treated well since they're doing us a pretty big favour here. Everything went smoothly. Both Phil and Ali are very agreeable and I'm looking forward to seeing them in action tomorrow. I'll probably learn a few things!

After the player's meeting we continued making room arrangements. A few of us split for a late lunch at an express noodle place. It wasn't too bad -- a bit too oily on a couple dishes for my liking, but the food was alright.

We returned to the room to continue setup. It went well, but there's a lot of stuff to do. We also needed to get the system up and running in order to test everything out. Hopefully everything works as advertised! Fairly late we found a problem with the power supply to the room. Apparently we were all hooked up to one outlet! That'd be 5 or 6 laptops and two huge projectors along with a camcorder. Yup, that's not good. It looks like we've got the power sorted out now. Tomorrow we'll have to double check the setup and see how things go.

We went as a huge UofA group to dinner at Earls. I didn't really like the choice -- we're in Vancouver for goodness sake! Josh from our group used to work at Earls though and he suggested a pretty good drink: A Keith's Iceberg. It's a Keith's India pale ale with some lime margarita mix in the top. It pretty much makes the Keith's taste like strongbow which was pretty cool.

After dinner I bought some plastic poker chips to play some poker with my colleagues. There was a lot of action hands ... and it appeared that people played pretty well even with no money on the line. I played really well (and also got really lucky, hitting some good cards). Then I lost a key hand where I flopped a set of 2s, but the guy who pushed into me had an open ended straight draw and a flush draw. His straight hit on the turn, and his bigger straight/flush card came on the river. No love for me. That crippled me, though I doubled up on the next hand with 33. Unfortunately I lost my stack on the next hand when I flopped top pair of 7s only to lose to Neil's better kicker. Oops.

So now I'm back at the hotel trying to get my photos from today uploaded to my laptop so I have a clean memory card when I go in tomorrow. I need a clean memory card since tomorrow I'll likely fill my card with photos!

Anyways. That's day 2. Tomorrow is the first 2 session of the man-machine poker match!!!!

Heraldk

Robocup Soccer

I was talking to Michael Bowling yesterday on the train and somehow the topic of his experience in robocup competitions came up. He's got lots of great stories about the odd things that happen at these competitions, and it's always really cool to talk to him about his experiences. In this conversation, I had my own experience to talk about. You see, in CMPUT 366 a few years ago, our introductory course on AI held a robocup simulation tournament. For those who don't know, robocup is the robot soccer competition, and it has many tournaments from a simulation based league to actual robots. Since this was an AI course, we were concentrating on the AI side of things and thus robots didn't come into play. I figured that since it's an interesting subject, I'd talk a bit about how I approached the problem and maybe give you an idea of what it is like to work in AI. Robocup Simulation

First of all, AI research is a whole lot more glitzy on the outside than it is internally. From the outside, game playing programs like Chinook and Deep Blue were able to make intelligent looking moves. On the inside though, the programs were unintelligently exploring millions of game states looking for the best move. So while I describe my approach to the soccer playing program, keep this in mind.

The tournament was run using a copy of the actual robocup simulation program. The simulation runs as follows: A server is started up that keeps track of where each player is, where the ball is, what the score is, etc. It enforces rules such as offside, and returns players to their half of the field after someone scores a goal. The server communicates with the programs that we, the students, wrote for the players taking in the actions that each player on the field makes at each timestep. One of the things that made this project a little difficult was that the actions the players were allowed to do were not very well documented and each student had to spend some time getting used to the interface to build their soccer playing program.

Each student was provided with a sample program that played elementary student style -- all players run towards the ball and kick it towards the opponent goal. My expectation was that many students would not build programs that were much more complicated than this style. So my goal was to be able to beat that program reliably first.

I spent a great deal of time examining the documentation that did exist for the simulator, and stumbled across a very interesting piece of information about how goaltenders had a special ability. Apparently, the simulator allowed the goalie to 'catch' the ball, and then teleport to another spot in the crease area. I spent several hours figuring out just how to get this to work, and succeeded after not too long. This was the biggest step I made in beating the "swarm the ball" type teams. Since the goaltender was now capable of teleporting to the other side of the goal and kick it down field, I had an easy way of getting the ball away from a large number of players in a concentrated space.

Now that I had my defensive position setup, I had to figure out a good way to generate some offense. Due to time constraints, and my doubts on getting a slick system working with no bugs, I decided to avoid complicated and potentially dangerous attempts to getting real communication and passing between players. Instead, I decided to try building in a heuristic-like system where players would tend to stay in their parts of the field unless the ball came near by. I had a set number of "forward", "defense", and "midfield" players who each had a home location. Next, to simulate passing, I had the defensemen kick the ball upfield at an angle towards the sides of the field (and incidentally where a player's "home base" was). Kicking to the sides of the field meant that the opponent players who clogged up the center of the field wouldn't intercept my "pass".

After I had this system working, my team looked strikingly intelligent. They'd clear the ball upfield down the sides (a lesson I learned from floor hockey), players looked very much like they were passing to one another, despite the lack of real communication. The players were blindly kicking the ball towards a place where another player tended to be. But most of the time that player had no reason to be elsewhere so he was there to retrieve the ball! Probably the least intelligent looking part of my end product was the finishing touch: kicking the ball into the net. At that point, my forwards behaved almost identically to the "swarm-the-ball" type players ... except that there wasn't nearly as many of them. So if my opponent had a good defensive position, I had trouble scoring on them. Unfortunately, I didn't have time to figure out how to improve that before the tournament started.

I did quite well in the tournament. The tournament was organized into 2 parts: a round robin seeding and then a bracketed finals system. I won my pool fairly handily which meant that I got a decent starting placement in the brackets. My program reached the quarterfinals before getting knocked out - which was a pretty happy result for me considering the size of the class. I think if my program's offense was tweaked a little more, I would've gone a little further.

The winning program? His strategy was almost a purely defensive strategy. He had a goalie and at least one other player sitting around the goal protecting it. Teams had a really hard time scoring on this program. The games were low scoring affairs, since this program had less players to form an offensive attack. Still, since players lacked offensive prowess, the defensive strategy was the right way to go for this tournament.

So ... that's what it is like to work on a program's AI. At least, that has been my experience with it. The later projects I've worked on, such as the Hex project and the Poker project have introduced much more complexity ... but underneath the bright shiny hood of AI is an ugly mess of hacks and unintelligent heuristics. Still, you can't argue with results, can you?

Heraldk

Wii Enabled

Success! My friends and I got in line at the ungodly hour of 4:20 to try and get ourselves Nintendo Wiis at the South Edmonton Common Walmart. Lucky for us, we were early enough to earn us each a ticket to buy one of 75 Wiis available at that particular store. In reality, we could've joined the line maybe an hour later and still got them, but it would've been a lot closer and more worrisome for us. We ended up getting tickets number 37 through 39. So now all 3 of us now own Nintendo Wii consoles, a second controller each and a copy of Zelda. Jeffu also picked up a copy of Rayman, while Curtis and I decided to wait for awhile before deciding on future games.

What do I think about the Wii? It is awesome! Wii sports has some hits and misses. Of the games, Bowling and Tennis are the most polished and feel like the most fun. Tennis is also not too bad, but I'm looking forward to a full fledged Mario Tennis like game. Baseball and Boxing aren't as much fun for me, but I'm also not all that interested in either game in real life either! All of the games on the Wii sports disc are pretty easy to pick up, and there should be several parties coming up where we have some serious tournaments!

The game of the minute, day, hour, month, ... year ... is definitely Zelda. I haven't got too far in yet -- just to the entrance of the 2nd dungeon. So far though, the story line is much more engrossing than any previous Zelda I've played. The plot is enhanced a great deal to some very well made cut scenes.

So far, the game is a little more linear than I expected - but I haven't made it far enough to see if that trend continues. Overall though, I'm really impressed with the game. It is extremely fun, and will likely take up a great deal of my free time as I attempt to work my way through the game!

Heraldk

Nintendo Wii-ness

So it looks like a couple friends and I are going to attempt to get the new Nintendo Wii console tomorrow morning. It sounds like there's a lot more Wiis available than PS3s, so it looks like we've got a pretty good chance at grabbing one. I'm really excited about the system. I'm getting increasingly tired of the same repetitive games. I'm not really into first person shooters, so "the next halo" is not something that particularly interests me. In a lot of ways though, the gaming world seems to be all about the next revision of the already successful games. Thanks to Nintendo, we may finally see some new innovation in console gaming. Plus I'm very much looking forward to the new Zelda game!

Hopefully I'll be able to talk about how fun the Wii is when I next post!

Heraldk

Poker Competition Results!

I'm up fairly early this morning and the first person to shower so now I can wait for everyone else to shower and spend some more time catching up on me blog!So last night four of us got back soaking wet from a night out at another bar. You know, I'm not a big drinker or anything but it seems I'm out a whole lot more often than I am in Edmonton. I guess its kind of fun to explore the city and hang out with newly met peers.Anyways, I got to bed around 1am last night and we got up around 8 in an attempt to get to the conference. After looking at the program we decided to skip the invited talk and get breakfast before the first paper talk. The set of games talks were on, which really was the stuff I was particularly interested in at this conference. I would attend several more talks than the previous day - one of the talks was the paper my name appears on. The official title of the paper was "Optimal Unbiased Estimators".

At 2:50pm, the announcement of who won the tournament occurred. The only people who knew who won were Marty and Christian with everyone else being kept in the dark until the announcement. Turns out, we won! We won by all metrics and it appears we got statistical significance in most areas which was pretty nice. I'm looking forward to getting the logs from the match so I can run the DIVAT analysis on them.

I attended another talk after the announcement and before Darse did his analysis of some hands in the match. Turns out one of the biggest things we took advantage of was CMU called down a lot on the river even if it had a bad hand due to some technical reasons. This is a terrible error, and I suspect this is a big reaosn we won.

A group of us headed out afterwards to go see Tomb which is an interactive puzzle sort of adventure. It was really pretty pricey ($16) but a pretty cool concept. Unfortunately, with our group being computer science people, the puzzles were a tad too simple to solve. I would really like to see them have multiple difficulty settings so that we would've had more of a challenge with it.

We had dinner at a steakhouse across from Tomb while we were waiting for our appointment. While being a steakhouse, everyone except Brad avoided the steak, which he said was a good decision. It's kinda funny how Albertans are so used to good beef which means we're pretty judgemental about other beef (particularly worse beef).

We decided to walk back through an area of town we hadn't been in before and passed Fenway park on the way to the Boston common. Fenway is where the Boston Red Sox play. We didn't get to see much besides the outside of the park but that was neat in itself. We walked back to the end of the Boston Common and got on the train back to the Hotel ... where we met up with Nolan, the girls from the previous night, and a couple of guys from Austin, Texas. After a quick shower, I joined them at a restaurant not far from our hotel called LTK (Legal Test Kitchen) which is a pretty neat restaraunt. They had super cheap guiness beer which was pretty awesome ($4.75!) ... though they didn't really know how to pour it properly.

Anyways, we stayed out until after midnight when the restaurant looked like they really wanted to kick us out so we vanished off to our hotel room where I stayed up for awhile catching up with yesterday's blog post.Any now I'm all caught up with my blog posts!

Heraldk