NHL Playoff Predictor 2014 Stanley Cup Finals

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Well we're at the finals now! Let's check how the simulator did:

Eastern Conference

Montreal 0.432 0.161
NY_Rangers 0.568 0.250

Western Conference

Chicago0.525 0.318
Los_Angeles0.475 0.271

1/2, a solid 50%. That leaves us at a record of 6/14, and guaranteed to get less than 50% of the predictions right. This is the worst performance of the simulator, but lets just point out that a lot of the favourites lost this year, and of course these are all weighted coinflips.

From the series themselves, the Blackhawks made it a series and almost pulled out a win in what looked like a pretty exciting game 7. In the East, the Rangers look like they outclassed the Canadiens, but I'd say that losing Carey Price was a pretty big blow no matter how well Tokarski played for him.

Anyway, what does the Stanley cup final look like?

Stanley Cup Final

NY_Rangers 0.455
Los_Angeles0.545

I don't think anyone will be surprised that the Kings are the favourites. But the teams are pretty darned close - they are very similar in goal differential, and as a result I wouldn't be surprised to see this series go 6 or 7 games and for the Rangers to have a real shot.

Should be interesting, anyway!

Herald

NHL Playoff Predictor 2014 Round 3

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Sorry this post is late. I've been moving house so in the chaos of that I couldn't get this post done in time for the start of round 3. Let's see how we did in the 2nd round:

Atlantic Division

Boston 0.800 0.577 0.400
Montreal 0.200 0.079 0.029

Metropolitan Division

Pittsburgh 0.563 0.206 0.102
NY_Rangers 0.437 0.138 0.060

Central Division

Chicago0.690 0.331 0.136
Minnesota0.310 0.095 0.024

Pacific Division

Anaheim0.572 0.347 0.160
Los_Angeles0.428 0.227 0.090

The favourites went down in 3/4 of the matches, which leaves our simulator at 5/12. Not doing well this year, but keep in mind that this is going to happen with what amounts to coin flipping. Montreal coming out on top was the biggest upset - I didn't watch very much of the series, but it kind of looked like a lot of that was Carey Price just shutting the door. Chicago was the other clear favourite, and they had some trouble with Minnesota it looked like but managed to finish it off anyway.

Let's set up round 3. I know the result of the first game of Montreal vs NY, but the simulator didn't have that recorded. So here is its predictions for the 3rd round:

Eastern Conference

Montreal 0.432 0.161
NY_Rangers 0.568 0.250

Western Conference

Chicago0.525 0.318
Los_Angeles0.475 0.271

Yay, coinflipping! These two series are pretty close, but NY has the slight edge which will contradict some of the odds since Montreal technically finished higher. Chicago is ahead of LA by a narrow margin. Should be interesting to see what happens from here!

Herald

NHL Playoff Predictor 2014 Round 2

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Well that was certainly a first round! Let's see how we did in this new playoff format.

Atlantic Division

Boston 0.864 0.674 0.507 0.346
Tampa_Bay0.559 0.162 0.080 0.032
Montreal 0.441 0.112 0.049 0.017
Detroit0.136 0.052 0.018 0.005

Metropolitan Division

Pittsburgh 0.622 0.380 0.153 0.074
NY_Rangers 0.619 0.298 0.105 0.044
Philadelphia 0.381 0.136 0.033 0.010
Columbus 0.378 0.186 0.056 0.020

Central Division

Colorado 0.625 0.244 0.104 0.039
St_Louis 0.572 0.387 0.217 0.110
Chicago0.428 0.263 0.130 0.057
Minnesota0.375 0.106 0.033 0.009

Pacific Division

Anaheim0.717 0.391 0.219 0.107
San_Jose 0.549 0.294 0.158 0.073
Los_Angeles0.451 0.220 0.107 0.046
Dallas 0.283 0.095 0.033 0.009

All told, the simulator goes 4/8. There were a couple of series that it predicted would be close that it got "wrong" in the St Louis/Chicago, Tampa Bay/Montreal and Los Angeles/San Jose series. The big upset of the first round was Minnesota knocking off the Avalanche. Oops.

So let's see what's in store for round two:

Atlantic Division

Boston 0.800 0.577 0.400
Montreal 0.200 0.079 0.029

Metropolitan Division

Pittsburgh 0.563 0.206 0.102
NY_Rangers 0.437 0.138 0.060

Central Division

Chicago0.690 0.331 0.136
Minnesota0.310 0.095 0.024

Pacific Division

Anaheim0.572 0.347 0.160
Los_Angeles0.428 0.227 0.090

Montreal draws an extremely tough Boston team now, and has an awfully uphill battle to beat them. Pittsburgh/NYR and Anaheim/LA look like really close matchups. Chicago looks fortunate to draw Minnesota instead of Colorado in round 2.

Let's see how this one plays out, shall we?

NHL Playoff Predictor 2014

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It's that time of year again! This time around, the NHL playoff format changed due to the realignment so I needed to do a little bit of rework on the simulator. Hopefully I didn't introduce any new issues! Since the new format is a straight-up brackets system, it wasn't actually that hard to adjust things... Although I punted the work to actually determine which wildcard team played in which division as future work and just put it in the right place in the input. The new playoff format is a bit interesting. I think the tougher than normal divisions are going to be a much bigger disadvantage than normal. Before, the team that drew the 3rd place team in the conference had the chance of getting a softer starting series. Now, the team with the advantage is the one that is most likely to face a relatively weaker team in the 2nd round.

Anyway, on to the probabilities!

Atlantic Division

Boston 0.864 0.674 0.507 0.346
Tampa_Bay0.559 0.162 0.080 0.032
Montreal 0.441 0.112 0.049 0.017
Detroit0.136 0.052 0.018 0.005

Metropolitan Division

Pittsburgh 0.622 0.380 0.153 0.074
NY_Rangers 0.619 0.298 0.105 0.044
Philadelphia 0.381 0.136 0.033 0.010
Columbus 0.378 0.186 0.056 0.020

Central Division

Colorado 0.625 0.244 0.104 0.039
St_Louis 0.572 0.387 0.217 0.110
Chicago0.428 0.263 0.130 0.057
Minnesota0.375 0.106 0.033 0.009

Pacific Division

Anaheim0.717 0.391 0.219 0.107
San_Jose 0.549 0.294 0.158 0.073
Los_Angeles0.451 0.220 0.107 0.046
Dallas 0.283 0.095 0.033 0.009

A couple of interesting things to note. Boston is the odds on favourite to take down the cup - which is not surprising given their stellar +84 goal differential. Keep in mind though that the Eastern conference is still the much weaker of the two conferences (and Boston played in the weakest overall division). Boston also draws the only team to make the playoffs that has a negative goal differential in the Detroit Red Wings which also helps explain the boost to their chances. Pretty crazy that Columbus and Detroit exactly tie each other in points - if Columbus had eked out a single point the landscape in the Eastern conference looks pretty different! Instead, Pittsburgh draws a tougher Columbus team and the Rangers get a fairly favourable first round matchup with the Flyers.

The Western conference is a tough place to be. Check out those goal differentials! In the non-wild card teams, Los Angeles trails everyone else with "just" a +32 goal differential. (Compare that to the for the Flyers of the non-wild card Eastern conference teams). It makes for some pretty tough sledding, which is another reason Boston is so heavily favoured. The Western teams have a series of only slightly weighted coinflips along the way - meanwhile, Boston has a much easier path.

St Louis is an interesting case - they faltered incredibly down the stretch, after being so dominant earlier in the season. Since much of their +57 goal differential is from the earlier part of the season, perhaps they are over-favoured via the simulator.

Enjoy the playoffs this year, folks! I'll be back in the 2nd round to update with the new information.

Herald

NHL Playoff Predictor 2013 - Round 4

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Boston had a much easier time with the Penguins in the East than I think most people were expecting. Pretty crazy that they got the sweep!

Pittsburgh 0.642 0.305
Boston 0.358 0.125

Chicago0.769 0.490
Los Angeles0.231 0.080

The predictor goes 1/2 that round bringing the overall record this playoffs to 11/14. Just one more series to predict!

Chicago0.715
Boston 0.285

These two teams have apparently not met in the stanley cup finals before in the history of the NHL, despite both being original six teams. Seems fairly incredible. At any rate, Chicago is heavily favoured, of course, but who knows? Boston could just as easily win 4 in a row and take down another cup. Either way, we've got a recent cup winner going to win again. Now if only the Oilers would start winning someday soon ...

Herald

NHL Playoff Predictor 2013 - Round 3

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We're already 2 rounds down, so let's have a look at how the predictor did!

Pittsburgh 0.702 0.462 0.242
Boston 0.533 0.225 0.090
NY Rangers 0.467 0.181 0.067
Ottawa 0.298 0.133 0.045

Chicago0.798 0.626 0.420 
Los Angeles0.551 0.162 0.063
San Jose 0.449 0.115 0.040
Detroit0.202 0.097 0.034

4/4 isn't too shabby! That puts us at 10/12 for the playoffs so far. With the remaining teams all being recent cup winners, we've got a pretty "predictable" final four teams ... so who's the favourite? Well given that Chicago wasn't knocked out, they're still the heavy favourite:

Pittsburgh 0.642 0.305
Boston 0.358 0.125

Chicago0.769 0.490
Los Angeles0.231 0.080

Pittsburgh also has a very good shot, and with the way that Crosby is incredibly playing through his friggin' broken jaw in style, well ... I guess Pittsburgh v Chicago for the cup seems like it'd be quite exciting. We shall see how things go though!

Herald

NHL Playoff Predictor 2013 - Round 2

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The first round is already over, and this is how things stacked up from it:

Pittsburgh 0.812 0.560 0.380 0.209
Montreal 0.556 0.310 0.131 0.052
Washington 0.487 0.240 0.095 0.035
Boston 0.597 0.299 0.140 0.059
Toronto0.403 0.162 0.060 0.020
NY Rangers 0.513 0.219 0.100 0.039
Ottawa 0.444 0.145 0.070 0.025
NY Islanders 0.188 0.064 0.023 0.006

Chicago0.871 0.689 0.531 0.368
Anaheim0.592 0.355 0.132 0.060
Vancouver0.482 0.200 0.054 0.019
St Louis 0.495 0.221 0.078 0.032
Los Angeles0.505 0.228 0.081 0.033
San Jose 0.518 0.167 0.058 0.021
Detroit0.408 0.097 0.048 0.018
Minnesota0.129 0.043 0.016 0.004

The predictor goes a solid 6/8 on the first round predictions, with Detroit and Ottawa being the misses. Although we got a bit of help from Boston's unlikely 3 goal come-back in the third period of game 7.

Here's what the next round looks like:

Pittsburgh 0.702 0.462 0.242
Boston 0.533 0.225 0.090
NY Rangers 0.467 0.181 0.067
Ottawa 0.298 0.133 0.045

Chicago0.798 0.626 0.420
Los Angeles0.551 0.162 0.063
San Jose 0.449 0.115 0.040
Detroit0.202 0.097 0.034

Chicago is now the overwhelming favourite to win the cup according to the simulator. Here's hoping the 2nd round is fun to watch!

Herald

NHL Playoff Predictor 2013 Round 1

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Gee, this blog has languished in rather unmaintained fashion. Someday I'll give this blog the love it deserves. At any rate, I wasn't totally sure if the simulator would work all that well on the shortened season this year. Given that there's less data, and teams like Chicago and Pittsburgh went on some ridiculous runs during this season ... well, I don't really know how this will go. But hey, lets give it another spin shall we? The following is a one million playoffs simulation, just like the previous ones...

Pittsburgh 0.812 0.560 0.380 0.209
Montreal 0.556 0.310 0.131 0.052
Washington 0.487 0.240 0.095 0.035
Boston 0.597 0.299 0.140 0.059
Toronto0.403 0.162 0.060 0.020
NY Rangers 0.513 0.219 0.100 0.039
Ottawa 0.444 0.145 0.070 0.025
NY Islanders 0.188 0.064 0.023 0.006

Chicago0.871 0.689 0.531 0.368
Anaheim0.592 0.355 0.132 0.060
Vancouver0.482 0.200 0.054 0.019
St Louis 0.495 0.221 0.078 0.032
Los Angeles0.505 0.228 0.081 0.033
San Jose 0.518 0.167 0.058 0.021
Detroit0.408 0.097 0.048 0.018
Minnesota0.129 0.043 0.016 0.004

Chicago and Pittsburgh are heavy favourites as you can imagine. Boston looks like a sweet spot in the East though. San Jose being favourite over Vancouver and the Rangers being favourite over Washington both make sense given the comparatively weaker 3rd seed.

Hope you enjoy the post season!

Heraldk

NHL Playoff Predictor 2012 Round 4

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Well here we are, back to the stanley cup playoffs. The LA kings walked all over Phoenix en route to a very impressive cup-run. They are looking like the favourites in most people's books to take down New Jersey. The Rangers had a lot of trouble with the Devils, and ultimately couldn't prevail.

NY Rangers 0.601 0.370
New Jersey 0.399 0.206

Phoenix0.478 0.196
Los Angeles0.522 0.228

So the predictor sits at a 7/14 going into the final round. What does it like for the stanley cup final?

New Jersey 0.506
Los Angeles 0.494

Hmm. So very close. Given the way that LA got there, I'd have to give them the nod as the favourite. But this should be a very interesting playoff series. Too bad I'm going to have trouble watching them. All the games have been scheduled at 8pm eastern, which is 1am in my current place of residence. So maybe one of the weekend games I'll get a chance to watch.

Herald

NHL Playoff Predictor 2012 Round 3

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Ahh, playoff hockey. The last update was rushed, so I'll go back to the first round to have a look at how we've done so far:

NY Rangers 0.657 0.391 0.180 0.093
Boston 0.807 0.566 0.354 0.218
Florida0.305 0.056 0.012 0.003
Pittsburgh 0.629 0.374 0.214 0.123
Philadelphia 0.371 0.178 0.080 0.037
New Jersey 0.695 0.282 0.103 0.043
Washington 0.193 0.058 0.019 0.006
Ottawa 0.343 0.096 0.037 0.014

Vancouver0.641 0.407 0.227 0.118
St Louis 0.650 0.408 0.234 0.124
Phoenix0.516 0.194 0.074 0.026
Nashville0.417 0.206 0.094 0.039
Detroit0.583 0.333 0.179 0.088
Chicago0.484 0.171 0.061 0.020
San Jose 0.350 0.139 0.064 0.024
Los Angeles0.359 0.143 0.067 0.025

This has been a strange playoffs. "Home Advantage" didn't seem to offer the benefit it usually does, and we saw pre-playoff favourites Boston, Pittsburgh and Vancouver all fall in the first round. Oops. As a result, the predictor did worse than in past years, going 5/8. Of the series, I watched a bunch of the Pittsburgh/Philadelphia series. It was one of the more entertaining series ... but a little crazy that Pittsburgh gave up big leads to lose games they probably should've won.

On to the next round!

NY Rangers 0.717 0.416 0.223
Philadelphia 0.546 0.276 0.132
New Jersey 0.454 0.210 0.092
Washington 0.283 0.098 0.031

St_Louis 0.643 0.410 0.249
Phoenix0.436 0.168 0.072
Nashville0.564 0.248 0.122
Los Angeles0.357 0.174 0.079

Yikes, what a weird playoffs. The Rangers nearly fell to washington in 7 games, and if they had the predictor would've completely bricked this round. 1/4 isn't too bad right? The Kings are putting on a clinic for how to knock off the top seeds in the conference. Apparently they are the first #8 seed team to ever defeat the number 1 and 2 seeds in a single NHL playoff - and they made it look easy. Now if only I had picked them in my playoff pools ...

In the East, the Devils made fairly short work of the Flyers - a team that has a lot of offensive firepower but their goaltending has struggled ... and the rangers had a lot more trouble than expected against washington. The Capitals sure got a lot of benefit from some fine goaltending from their 3rd string goalie. Wow did Holtby ever play well. But it wasn't quite enough to beat the rangers.

Alright, so the conference finals are up next. Here's what the predictor says for the matchups:

NY Rangers 0.601 0.370
New Jersey 0.399 0.206

Phoenix0.478 0.196
Los Angeles0.522 0.228

The rangers are favourites as expected, but I expect them to have problems with the Devils. The Devils are relatively rested and the Rangers have had two game 7's already.

In the West, Phoenix and LA make a pretty unlikely matchup. The simulator likes LA, and I do as well - they seem to have the right combination of depth, hot goaltending, and confidence ... and Phoenix should be a relatively easy opponent compared to Vancouver and St. Louis.

Herald

NHL Playoff Predictor 2012

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Greetings once again! I had grandiose plans of getting a new version of the simulator done in time for the playoffs this year. Oops - looks like the playoffs are going to start before I get there. Damn.

Oh well - for now, here's the old simulator run for the first round. Maybe I'll get around to the new version before the end of the playoffs. No guarantees though.

NY Rangers 0.657 0.391 0.180 0.093
Boston 0.807 0.566 0.354 0.218
Florida0.305 0.056 0.012 0.003
Pittsburgh 0.629 0.374 0.214 0.123
Philadelphia 0.371 0.178 0.080 0.037
New Jersey 0.695 0.282 0.103 0.043
Washington 0.193 0.058 0.019 0.006
Ottawa 0.343 0.096 0.037 0.014

Vancouver0.641 0.407 0.227 0.118
St Louis 0.650 0.408 0.234 0.124
Phoenix0.516 0.194 0.074 0.026
Nashville0.417 0.206 0.094 0.039
Detroit0.583 0.333 0.179 0.088
Chicago0.484 0.171 0.061 0.020
San Jose 0.350 0.139 0.064 0.024
Los Angeles0.359 0.143 0.067 0.025

Some interesting matchups in the first round, with Boston benefitting the most according to goal differential against the Capitals. As a result, the Bruins are relatively heavy favourites to win the cup again - but less so than the predictor predicted for the Canucks last year (21.8% for the Bruins this year compared to 29% for the Canucks last year). Florida, despite getting home ice advantage and 3rd in the East have basically no shot at the cup - being underdogs to the Devils. Phoenix is in a similar position, but the predictor still likes their chances against first round Chicago.

Boston, St Louis, Vancouver, and Pittsburgh are the favourites in this year's playoffs. I'm looking forward to watching some playoff hockey again!!

Herald

NHL Playoff Predictor 2011 Round 4

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Well that was a fun round. Dwayne Roloson and the Tampa Bay Lightning very nearly toppled Boston. It was a pretty sick run for that team. Vancouver kind of waltzed past the San Jose, although it was a pretty hard fought series. Here's how the predictor did for this round:

Boston_Bruins 0.718 0.315
Tampa_Bay_Lightning 0.282 0.066

Vancouver_Canucks 0.707 0.480
San_Jose_Sharks 0.293 0.139

The predictor goes 2/2 this round, for an overall record of 11/14.

Boston_Bruins 0.377
Vancouver_Canucks 0.623

The predictor likes Vancouver, and I wouldn't mind seeing the cup come back to Canada. As an Oiler fan it is a bit painful to see the Canucks succeed ... but I guess I couldn't begrudge them winning their first cup. I'm a bit conflicted though -- I entered a playoff pool and have in that Boston to beat Vancouver. If that happens, I win the 126 entrant for-bragging-rights pool. So I guess the series is win-win for me. I'm looking forward to watching the matches from Canada!

Herald

NHL Playoff Predictor 2011 Round 3

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Well the 2nd round was almost totally lame compared to the first round as many of the series looked like they were going to be short one-sided affairs. But the Western matchups were made into series as both Nashville and Detroit put up good fights before finally bowing out. Here's a look at how the predictor did for this round:

Washington_Capitals 0.610 0.260 0.100
Philadelphia_Flyers 0.407 0.232 0.093
Boston_Bruins 0.593 0.386 0.188
Tampa_Bay_Lightning 0.390 0.123 0.034

Vancouver_Canucks 0.726 0.535 0.371
San_Jose_Sharks 0.585 0.210 0.103
Detroit_Red_Wings 0.415 0.118 0.048
Nashville_Predators 0.274 0.137 0.063

3/4 is a pretty good record, with the only miss being Tampa Bay.  The predictor goes 9 for 12 overall so far. San Jose nearly coughed up a 3-0 series lead but held on, but really the story was Dwayne Roloson's continued playoff excellence. That guy is 40 years old and playing absolutely briliantly!

What's up for the next round? Well:

Boston_Bruins 0.718 0.315
Tampa_Bay_Lightning 0.282 0.066

Vancouver_Canucks 0.707 0.480
San_Jose_Sharks 0.293 0.139

Vancouver and Boston are heavy favourites to meet in the stanely cup finals. But you never know -- both the lightning and the sharks have strong teams and the matchups will be very interesting.

Herald

NHL Playoff Predictor 2011 Round 2

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The NHL seems to have a quicker turnaround this year between the first and second rounds, so I'm trying to get this post out in a hurry. The first round of the playoffs was about as exciting a round as I think I can remember. Several multi-goal deficits were erased, lots of OT, lots of game 7s... makes me wish I could've watched more of the games than I got to. Here's a quick recap of the first round:

Washington_Capitals 0.464 0.252 0.114 0.048
Philadelphia_Flyers 0.594 0.277 0.139 0.061
Boston_Bruins 0.703 0.421 0.257 0.136
Pittsburgh_Penguins 0.664 0.355 0.189 0.089
Tampa_Bay_Lightning 0.336 0.125 0.046 0.014
Montreal_Canadiens0.297 0.123 0.047 0.016
Buffalo_Sabres0.406 0.184 0.070 0.025
New_York_Rangers0.536 0.263 0.139 0.063

Vancouver_Canucks 0.725 0.557 0.418 0.290
San_Jose_Sharks 0.555 0.313 0.130 0.064
Detroit_Red_Wings 0.566 0.259 0.086 0.035
Anaheim_Ducks 0.387 0.142 0.042 0.015
Nashville_Predators 0.613 0.293 0.119 0.055
Phoenix_Coyotes 0.434 0.145 0.047 0.017
Los_Angeles_Kings 0.445 0.150 0.077 0.034
Chicago_Blackhawks0.275 0.143 0.081 0.038

The predictor goes 6 for 8 this year in the first round - losing on the NYR and PIT bets. The Penguins suffered the loss of Malkin and Crosby which they couldn't really recover from (tough to lose those guys), but they made it a series. The rangers put up a good fight but couldn't hold onto a couple of leads that should probably be games they win. I was rooting for the Habs to upset the bruins, but that didn't happen ... and the Canucks managed to almost lose their series after taking a 3-0 lead.

So what do we have for the next round?

Washington_Capitals 0.610 0.260 0.100
Philadelphia_Flyers 0.407 0.232 0.093
Boston_Bruins 0.593 0.386 0.188
Tampa_Bay_Lightning 0.390 0.123 0.034

Vancouver_Canucks 0.726 0.535 0.371
San_Jose_Sharks 0.585 0.210 0.103
Detroit_Red_Wings 0.415 0.118 0.048
Nashville_Predators 0.274 0.137 0.063

The Bruins are still favourites out of the East to win the cup, but they've got a tough match ahead against the flyers. Meanwhile the Capitals have the edge on the lightning by a fair margin. In the West, the Canucks are heavy favourites again, but their success will depend on how they respond to the almost-first-round-collapse against the Hawks. Definitely Chicago was a tough first round draw though, and they have a very deep team so they should be up for it. San Jose has the edge against Detroit, but that series could probably go either way. It's tough to bet against the wings. Probably the series to watch this round.

Herald

NHL Playoff Predictor 2011

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For previous years see 2008, 2009, 2010 I don't think it should be a surprise to anyone that Vancouver is heavily favoured to win the cup this year. A couple of interesting notes:

Boston is the favourite out of the east this year, according to the simulator, despite sitting in 3rd in the East. This comes out of a having one of the best goals for/goals against ratios in the conference. They also benefit from a first round match against the Canadiens who have a low goals for total for the year.

Pittsburgh also surprises as being a second favourite in the East -- also benefitting from a favourable first round matchup against the Lightning who have a very high goals against total for the year.

The West is a lot more ordinary in the ranking, with the favs being Vancouver, San Jose, and Detroit.

Washington_Capitals 0.464 0.252 0.114 0.048
Philadelphia_Flyers 0.594 0.277 0.139 0.061
Boston_Bruins 0.703 0.421 0.257 0.136
Pittsburgh_Penguins 0.664 0.355 0.189 0.089
Tampa_Bay_Lightning 0.336 0.125 0.046 0.014
Montreal_Canadiens0.297 0.123 0.047 0.016
Buffalo_Sabres0.406 0.184 0.070 0.025
New_York_Rangers0.536 0.263 0.139 0.063

Vancouver_Canucks 0.725 0.557 0.418 0.290
San_Jose_Sharks 0.555 0.313 0.130 0.064
Detroit_Red_Wings 0.566 0.259 0.086 0.035
Anaheim_Ducks 0.387 0.142 0.042 0.015
Nashville_Predators 0.613 0.293 0.119 0.055
Phoenix_Coyotes 0.434 0.145 0.047 0.017
Los_Angeles_Kings 0.445 0.150 0.077 0.034
Chicago_Blackhawks0.275 0.143 0.081 0.038

Looking forward to more playoff hockey! Let's go!

NHL Playoff Predictor 09-10 Round 4

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Alas, the Montreal Canadiens couldn't keep the magic alive. So instead, it is the seventh seed Flyers that make it to the cup final against the Chicago Blackhawks. The Hawks looked mighty strong against a strong Sharks team, and there's probably no surprise which of the Hawks and Flyers it likes better. But first, here's a review of the last round:

Philadelphia_Flyers 0.576 0.180
Montreal_Canadiens 0.424 0.106

San_Jose_Sharks 0.441 0.303
Chicago_Blackhawks 0.559 0.411

The predictor goes 2/2 this round making it 9/14 overall. Not a bad recovery after a topsy turvy first round!

The Stanley cup final starts on Saturday, and unfortunately for me, the games all start late -- probably too late for me to watch any of them live. Oh wells. At any rate, here's what the predictor says about the final:

Philadelphia_Flyers 0.287
Chicago_Blackhawks 0.713

No surprise, really. It might be an exciting series though...

Heraldk

NHL Playoff Predictor 09-10 Round 3

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What a crazy year for the NHL playoffs. The teams that make the semifinals? Seeds 1 and 2 in the west, and seeds 7 and 8 in the east! Yeesh.

Pittsburgh_Penguins 0.611 0.332 0.122
Boston_Bruins 0.482 0.236 0.078
Philadelphia_Flyers 0.518 0.263 0.089
Montreal_Canadiens 0.389 0.169 0.046

San_Jose_Sharks 0.648 0.304 0.202
Chicago_Blackhawks 0.561 0.341 0.243
Vancouver_Canucks 0.439 0.242 0.161
Detroit_Red_Wings 0.352 0.114 0.059

So the predictor did a good job, going 3/4 this time around. The exception was Montreal's 7 game masterpiece against the Pittsburgh Penguins. I'm feeling the magic! The question in my head is: will Montreal follow the "canadian team forcing game 7 in the finals and lose" pattern, or will they follow the 1993 pattern of having the stars align and pulling out a win? At any rate, the predictor now has a record of 7/12  (same as last year at this time). So what does it think of the next round?

Philadelphia_Flyers 0.576 0.180
Montreal_Canadiens 0.424 0.106

San_Jose_Sharks 0.441 0.303
Chicago_Blackhawks 0.559 0.411

The flyers are the favourite agains the Habs, but I'll be rooting for the Canadian club anyways. There's something special going on there. On the west side, Chicago has a bit of an edge ... that should be an excellent series to watch.

Herald

NHL Playoff Predictor 09-10 Round 2

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So, umm. That was quite a first round -- particularly that first round upset that was the Montreal Canadiens. I don't have much time for commentary tonight. It's late, and I gotta get to bed. But what a topsy turvy scenario the Eastern Conference is in this year. The Pens jumped waaay up in equity after the top three teams in the East were knocked out. Craziness! Here's how the simulator fared in the first round:

Washington_Capitals 0.823 0.637 0.454 0.291
New_Jersey_Devils 0.599 0.347 0.151 0.071
Buffalo_Sabres 0.593 0.320 0.130 0.058
Pittsburgh_Penguins 0.644 0.268 0.102 0.041
Ottawa_Senators 0.356 0.104 0.027 0.007
Boston_Bruins 0.407 0.148 0.055 0.020
Philadelphia_Flyers 0.401 0.113 0.055 0.020
Montreal_Canadiens 0.177 0.063 0.026 0.008

San_Jose_Sharks 0.665 0.426 0.215 0.110
Chicago_Blackhawks 0.751 0.482 0.294 0.166
Vancouver_Canucks 0.613 0.327 0.179 0.090
Phoenix_Coyotes 0.549 0.233 0.099 0.041
Detroit_Red_Wings 0.451 0.170 0.063 0.023
Los_Angeles_Kings 0.387 0.176 0.074 0.030
Nashville_Predators 0.249 0.083 0.031 0.010
olorado_Avalanche 0.335 0.103 0.045 0.016

So a bit of a rough (4/8) there. To be fair, that Washington/Montreal series would probably go Washington's way most times you flip that coin, and the others were much more even coin flips: with the "most likely upsets" from all coming true (Det over Phx, Bos over Buf, and Phi over NJ). So what does the next round hold? Well my sim results look like this:

Pittsburgh_Penguins 0.611 0.332 0.122
Boston_Bruins 0.482 0.236 0.078
Philadelphia_Flyers 0.518 0.263 0.089
Montreal_Canadiens 0.389 0.169 0.046

San_Jose_Sharks 0.648 0.304 0.202
Chicago_Blackhawks 0.561 0.341 0.243
Vancouver_Canucks 0.439 0.242 0.161
Detroit_Red_Wings 0.352 0.114 0.059

The Penguin's probability of winning the cup jumped over 8%. Chicago is the sim's favourite though despite the tougher Western conference matchups. Pittsburgh should have a much easier time getting to the finals -- but what happens when they get there is a question.

Anyways, I gotta get to bed. Enjoy the next round of the playoffs!

Heraldk

NHL Playoff Predictor 09-10

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For previous years, check out: 08/09, and 07/08. So the simulator likes the Capitals at a hefty 29.1%. Not as big a favourite as previous years (Detroit at 33% in 2008 and Boston at 30.8% in 2009). Despite the Sharks winning the Western conference this year, the Blackhawks are favoured higher by more than 5%. Considering that the Sharks struggled down the stretch and relied on a few extra OT "Bettman Points" to clinch the division (the Hawks actually had *more* wins). Vancouver is the next favourite coming in at 9%.

The most likely "upsets" in the first round are Detroit over Phoenix (45.1%), Boston over Buffalo (40.7%), and Philadelphia over New Jersey (40.1%).

The Canadian teams in the East drew tough first round matches against Washington and Pittsburgh, and as a result their overall chance of winning the cup are hurt tremendously.

Washington_Capitals0.823 0.637 0.454 0.291
New_Jersey_Devils 0.599 0.347 0.151 0.071
Buffalo_Sabres 0.593 0.320 0.130 0.058
Pittsburgh_Penguins 0.644 0.268 0.102 0.041
Ottawa_Senators 0.356 0.104 0.027 0.007
Boston_Bruins 0.407 0.148 0.055 0.020
Philadelphia_Flyers 0.401 0.113 0.055 0.020
Montreal_Canadiens 0.177 0.063 0.026 0.008

San_Jose_Sharks 0.665 0.426 0.215 0.110
Chicago_Blackhawks 0.751 0.482 0.294 0.166
Vancouver_Canucks 0.613 0.327 0.179 0.090
Phoenix_Coyotes 0.549 0.233 0.099 0.041
Detroit_Red_Wings 0.451 0.170 0.063 0.023
Los_Angeles_Kings 0.387 0.176 0.074 0.030
Nashville_Predators 0.249 0.083 0.031 0.010
Colorado_Avalanche 0.335 0.103 0.045 0.016

I'll be running the simulator for each round of the playoffs again this year. More comments to come, but I gotta get my picks ready for the couple of playoff pools I'm in this year.

Heraldk

Edit: thanks Darse for pointing out that Philly doesn't play Pittsburgh. Fixed!