NHL Playoff Predictor 08-09 Round 4

Alright, one more go for the predictor! Pittsburgh_Penguins 0.547 0.214 Carolina_Hurricanes 0.453 0.158

Detroit_Red_Wings 0.488 0.305
Chicago_Blackhawks 0.512 0.322

1 for 2 on the conference finals... Pittsburgh, as expected, took it down, and the Hawks really didn't give the wings any trouble -- despite several games going to overtime. It didn't look to me like the Hawks had a shot at all in the games that I did watch. Oh well, guess I can't get 'em all right. The predictor is sitting at 8/14 with one series to go. How does the last round stack up?

Pittsburgh_Penguins 0.396
Detroit_Red_Wings 0.604

It's really hard not to bet on the Wings. They've been so dominant for so long. But the penguins are going to give them a harder time than last year, I expect. It should be a great series, at any rate!

Herald

NHL Playoff Predictor 08-09 Round 3

Well that last round didn't go to plan ... Here's the results:

Boston_Bruins 0.770 0.570 0.388
Washington_Capitals 0.506 0.166 0.072
Pittsburgh_Penguins 0.494 0.161 0.070
Carolina_Hurricanes 0.230 0.103 0.040

Detroit_Red_Wings 0.678 0.358 0.164
Vancouver_Canucks 0.405 0.190 0.073
Chicago_Blackhawks 0.595 0.337 0.159
Anaheim_Ducks 0.322 0.115 0.035

The Hurricanes play spoiler to the Bruins which makes my program off there. Not too sure how many people picked the 'Canes over the Bruins, but I don't think there were many. The Caps/Pens played an incredible series to 7 games, and it was as close as I (and my program) expected. Out west though, the program did much better with both the Red Wings and Blackhawks making it through as predicted. With this round done, giving us a 7/12 record. A couple of too close to call series, and the 'Canes pulling off a pair of upsets are a quick way to explain what happened so far this year.

What's up for the next round? The teams are quite evenly matched, but there's a bit of surprise pick for the west.

Pittsburgh_Penguins 0.547 0.214
Carolina_Hurricanes 0.453 0.158

Detroit_Red_Wings 0.488 0.305
Chicago_Blackhawks 0.512 0.322

That's right, the program likes the Hawks. This was the reason I went with the hawks and bruins in my playoff pools ... but thanks to the 'Canes, I now have no shot to win those.

Herald

NHL Playoff Predictor 08-09 Round 2

Alright, the first round of the playoffs is in the books, so lets review how the predictor did, shall we?

Boston_Bruins 0.814 0.634 0.458 0.308
Washington_Capitals 0.649 0.321 0.117 0.051
New_Jersey_Devils 0.603 0.339 0.143 0.070
Pittsburgh_Penguins 0.495 0.209 0.084 0.036
Philadelphia_Flyers 0.505 0.216 0.087 0.038
Carolina_Hurricanes 0.397 0.136 0.055 0.021
New_York_Rangers 0.351 0.073 0.027 0.008
Montreal_Canadiens 0.186 0.071 0.029 0.010

San_Jose_Sharks 0.706 0.474 0.276 0.145
Detroit_Red_Wings 0.720 0.435 0.227 0.110
Vancouver_Canucks 0.617 0.276 0.121 0.049
Chicago_Blackhawks 0.688 0.390 0.217 0.107
Calgary_Flames 0.312 0.118 0.044 0.014
St_Louis_Blues 0.383 0.124 0.042 0.012
Columbus_Blue_Jackets 0.280 0.083 0.031 0.009
Anaheim_Ducks 0.294 0.101 0.043 0.014

In summary, the predictor didn't do a bad job, but it did get 3 series wrong giving it a 5/8 record starting off this playoffs. The biggest upset was Anaheim over San Jose -- a series that San Jose apparently didn't even show up for. Besides that, the other two series that the predictor got wrong were really close. Carolina managed to hit runner-runner to win their series by forcing a game 7, and then scoring two goals to tie and go ahead late in the 3rd period. Thanks for screwing up my playoff pools, Carolina! The other series, my predictor had Pittsburgh and Philly only a few percentage points apart, and so I'm not really that concerned that it picked the wrong side there.

Looking ahead, here's the output for the next round:

Boston_Bruins 0.770 0.570 0.388
Washington_Capitals 0.506 0.166 0.072
Pittsburgh_Penguins 0.494 0.161 0.070
Carolina_Hurricanes 0.230 0.103 0.040

Detroit_Red_Wings 0.678 0.358 0.164
Vancouver_Canucks 0.405 0.190 0.073
Chicago_Blackhawks 0.595 0.337 0.159
Anaheim_Ducks 0.322 0.115 0.035

Boston has a huge edge going against Carolina, and Detroit has a similar edge against the ducks. But the other matchups are *much* closer. The program gives the slight edge to the Caps, but given how much trouble the Caps had with the Rangers, I wouldn't totally be surprised to see the Penguins move on. The Canucks/Blackhawks series isn't quite that close, and Chicago is certainly looking like a good option.

Herald

NHL Playoff Predictor 08-09

The NHL season is over for another year. Alas, my Oilers didn't make it, but it still is a fun time to run the playoff predictor for another season. Here's the numbers for the various teams. For an explanation, see here.

Boston_Bruins 0.814 0.634 0.458 0.308
Washington_Capitals 0.649 0.321 0.117 0.051
New_Jersey_Devils 0.603 0.339 0.143 0.070
Pittsburgh_Penguins 0.495 0.209 0.084 0.036
Philadelphia_Flyers 0.505 0.216 0.087 0.038
Carolina_Hurricanes 0.397 0.136 0.055 0.021
New_York_Rangers 0.351 0.073 0.027 0.008
Montreal_Canadiens 0.186 0.071 0.029 0.010

San_Jose_Sharks 0.706 0.474 0.276 0.145
Detroit_Red_Wings 0.720 0.435 0.227 0.110
Vancouver_Canucks 0.617 0.276 0.121 0.049
Chicago_Blackhawks 0.688 0.390 0.217 0.107
Calgary_Flames 0.312 0.118 0.044 0.014
St_Louis_Blues 0.383 0.124 0.042 0.012
Columbus_Blue_Jackets 0.280 0.083 0.031 0.009
Anaheim_Ducks 0.294 0.101 0.043 0.014

Playoff Predictor, Stanley Cup Finals, 2008

Well my predictor is sure doing better than I did in my playoff pools. Going into the conference finals, it was 11 for 12 for predictions, and it got both of the conference finals right as well!

Pittsburgh_Penguins 0.579 0.204
Philadelphia_Flyers 0.421 0.119

Detroit_Red_Wings 0.681 0.498
Dallas_Stars 0.319 0.178

So what's left? The Stanley cup finals start tomorrow night and it should be a great series. So I gave my predictor one final spin to see what it says. It should come as no surprise that Detroit is heavily favoured by the program:

Pittsburgh_Penguins 0.295
Detroit_Red_Wings 0.705

While I'd be happy to say my program went 14/15, I'm still kinda rooting for the penguins. They are an exciting team to watch with a hell of a lot of talent at a very young age. Whoever wins though, the series should be one for the ages.

Heraldk

Playoff Predictor, Round 3 2008

Well the second round of the playoffs is over, and it's time to give my simulator another spin. First, let's look at the results from Round 2:

Montreal_Canadiens 0.616 0.348 0.147
Detroit_Red_Wings0.772 0.530 0.380
Philadelphia_Flyers 0.384 0.174 0.056
Colorado_Avalanche 0.228 0.091 0.039

Pittsburgh_Penguins 0.568 0.289 0.114
San_Jose_Sharks 0.483 0.180 0.094
New_York_Rangers 0.432 0.189 0.064
Dallas_Stars 0.517 0.199 0.107

The simulator goes 3 for 4 this round with the only one not going its way being the Montreal-Philly series. Overall, the simulator's predictions have been 11 for 12. Not too shabby huh?

Here are the predictions of my simulator for the conference finals:

Pittsburgh_Penguins 0.579 0.204
Philadelphia_Flyers 0.421 0.119

Detroit_Red_Wings 0.681 0.498
Dallas_Stars 0.319 0.178

So according to the program, Detroit has just shy of a 50% chance to win the whole thing, and their likely opponents is the Pittsburgh Penguins. Dallas and Pittsburgh are very close for 2nd place and Philly is not liked as much by the program.

See Round 2 and Round 1 for more information.

Heraldk

Playoff Predictions, Round 2, 2008

I posted before the first round playoffs started to present some output from my NHL playoff simulator. How'd it do at predicting the results? Well let's have a look. I removed the later round predictions from the last post just to clean this up and make it easier to read. Correct predictions are in bold.

Montreal_Canadiens 0.720
Detroit_Red_Wings 0.811
Boston_Bruins 0.280
Nashville_Predators 0.189
Pittsburgh_Penguins 0.590
San_Jose_Sharks 0.634
Ottawa_Senators 0.410
Calgary_Flames 0.366

Washington_Capitals 0.481
Minnesota_Wild 0.468
Philadelphia_Flyers 0.519
Colorado_Avalanche 0.532
New_Jersey_Devils 0.477
Anaheim_Ducks 0.414
New_York_Rangers 0.523
Dallas_Stars 0.586

Not bad huh? In every case, the favourite team of each match was the one that won. Three of the series went right down to the wire though, and I honestly thought Washington was going to beat Philly in game 7. They were a feel good story this year, along with the Oilers late season push to the playoffs that fell *just* short. San Jose and Montreal almost choked in the first round on series leads, but managed to pull through in the end.

So what does the simulator say for the next round? Once again the first column is the probability of winning that round. The second column is the probability of winning the conference final, and the third column is the probability of taking home the cup. This run is one million playoff simulations seeded with the results of the first playoff round.

Montreal_Canadiens 0.616 0.348 0.147
Pittsburgh_Penguins 0.568 0.289 0.114
New_York_Rangers 0.432 0.189 0.064
Philadelphia_Flyers 0.384 0.174 0.056

Detroit_Red_Wings 0.772 0.530 0.380
San_Jose_Sharks 0.483 0.180 0.094
Dallas_Stars 0.517 0.199 0.107
Colorado_Avalanche 0.228 0.091 0.039

Detroit, Dallas, Montreal, and Pittsburgh are the favourites according to the simulator. The only selection that is a bit surprising for this round is Dallas - but I'm not too surprised by that considering some of the numbers they put up this year. If they can shut down Thornton, they've got a pretty good shot at the conference finals.

Overall Detroit still has the highest probability of winning the cup, up to 38% now. Montreal and Pittsburgh are neck and neck for second place in probability of winning the cup. Dallas and San Jose are next and the last three have a 6% or less chance.

Now that the first round is out, the last remaining Canadian team is my second favourite team in the league: the Montreal Canadiens. So since the Oil are down and out, I'm cheering for them. Push that 14.7% edge boys!

Heraldk

Predicting the NHL Playoffs 07/08

I've become increasingly interested in computer solutions and simulations for domains where you might not expect something can be done. One domain that I've been more and more interested in is NHL hockey -- a sport that I'm a fan of. So before the 2007/2008 playoffs started, I decided to write a simulator that figured out how likely it was that each team won the stanley cup based on their regular season statistics. The results are below, with each team's probability of making it past each round the numbers in the columns. So the Montreal Canadiens have a 72% chance of beating the bruins, and a 12.2% chance of winning the cup.

Montreal_Canadiens 0.720 0.446 0.264 0.122
Pittsburgh_Penguins 0.590 0.362 0.193 0.083
Washington_Capitals 0.481 0.224 0.097 0.033
New_Jersey_Devils 0.477 0.217 0.096 0.034
New_York_Rangers 0.523 0.250 0.116 0.043
Philadelphia_Flyers 0.519 0.236 0.110 0.039
Ottawa_Senators 0.410 0.167 0.086 0.030
Boston_Bruins 0.280 0.098 0.039 0.010

Detroit_Red_Wings 0.811 0.622 0.449 0.330
San_Jose_Sharks 0.634 0.368 0.150 0.082
Minnesota_Wild 0.468 0.187 0.056 0.024
Anaheim_Ducks 0.414 0.182 0.069 0.033
Dallas_Stars 0.586 0.306 0.141 0.079
Colorado_Avalanche 0.532 0.178 0.068 0.031
Calgary_Flames 0.366 0.086 0.037 0.015
Nashville_Predators 0.189 0.072 0.030 0.012

What's startling is Detroit's enormous 33% chance of winning the whole thing. A couple of other surprises include Dallas' relatively high probability of winning the cup (7.9%). It's much higher than the Ducks or Avs which are next to them in the standings.

How does this work? I basically calculate the average goals a team is expected to score against their opposing team by using the season goals-for and goals-against numbers. I use this to simulate games between teams and run entire playoff simulations. The probabilities above are simply the number of times that team reaches the next round divided by the number of simulations.

I don't have very many features added in that I would like to add. One particular one is a recency statistic that increases the relevance of the last 20 games of the season. I expect that such a statistic will greatly increase San Jose and Washington's chances of winning the cup and probably dampen Dallas' chances.

Credit to Darse for giving me some hints and tips on how to create my simulator. Hopefully I'll get a chance to work on it a bit more so that I can build in some more statistics to help it make a more informed decision.

Heraldk

3-0 Baby!

I've been playing floor hockey with the CS team again this year. This year we've got a pretty competitive looking team. Several new additions to the team mean we've got some serious firepower on the floor almost every shift, and the players that don't have that firepower are good solid players. So with last night's 10-1 win capping off the 3 game round robin, we're on top of the division for the first time since I joined the team several years ago. Woohoo! It's a lot of fun to play and have a shot to win. I haven't often been on a team that has had a competitive shot to win.

In related news, it looks like I might be able to join a floor hockey team in the Edmonton ball hockey league. I've been looking for a league to play in for a long time, so I'm pretty excited about getting a chance to play finally. The short intramural season was just not enough time to play floor hockey each semester.

Heraldk

Game On

The past three games have been very encouraging for the Oilers. We're battling through some pretty intense injury trouble, but with last night's win in LA, we're now just one game shy of .500, and a pair of points out of a playoff spot. The two wins against Anaheim are HUGE for a couple of reasons. The first is obviously that wins are important against any team. But beating down Anaheim means that we are more likely to finish above them in the standings - meaning the draft pick we have from them is worth more than the one we gave up for Dustin Penner. The Kevin Lowe vs Brian Burke war seems to be evening out a little more. If the oilers can turn this season around, I think the Dustin Penner offer sheet was a pretty good move for Kevin Lowe - particularly since Penner has been playing better and better over the last few games.

The Edmonton Oilers, in the past couple of years, have been a frustratingly fun team to watch. Even in 05/06 when we made the run to the cup, the Oilers just squeaked into the playoffs. They did so by beating the good teams, and losing to the bad teams ... which made no sense. Last year's season was a terrible disappointment, but the team had so much trouble scoring. Add in the injury troubles that plagued the oilers in the late season, and it really was a recipe for disaster.

I still think the experts are crazy to think they can just write off the oilers as contenders. Anything can happen in the new NHL, and the oilers have a lot of the right ingredients to turn things around. Granted, they have a lot of young and unexperienced players on their team, but there is a lot of skill there, and if the elements click into place, I wouldn't be surprised to see this team playoff bound.

Heraldk

Maddening Oilers

Man, I just can't shake the feeling that the Oilers have some chance to go on a stretch of wins. They've got so much talent - they just can't seem to put it together. Of course, the crazy number of injuries isn't helping. If the Oilers started getting healthy all of a sudden, I think we'd be looking at a particularly good team. The game last night against Vancouver was a lot of fun to watch. It was also a nail-biter, and every time Vancouver got some pressure on us I got nervous. But Mathieu Garon managed to put on A SHOW and stopped everything that Vancouver sent his way - including three shootout attempts! The Oil looked dangerous for parts of the game, but they seem to have this bad habit of giving the puck away in the neutral zone (or worse, in their own end). I don't know how to get them to do this, but they need to be able to maintain control of the puck for longer parts of the game or we're going to continue having trouble maintaining any pressure.

Tonight's game was worse for that score. We just couldn't keep constant pressure on the puck and it seemed like every second shift we'd give the puck away several times. Ewww. Hockey like that is maddening to watch for the fan. Glad to see Jarret Stoll get a couple goals though. They were a bit ugly, but I'm glad to see him snap his goal drought. Let's hope he continues to recover last year's form!

Maybe their play tonight was due to the back-to-back schedule. I sure hope they can start building some consistency into their game ... if they do, and start to get healthy ... I seriously think we've got a playoff bound team. Until then though, we're in some trouble.

Heraldk

Catchup

Okay, it seems these catchup posts are getting to be the norm. I hope they aren't though - so I'm gonna try and get caught up here and start getting myself back in the habit of posting here. First up, the big thing lately has been my return to poker. I started playing a few weeks ago to catchup on some PSO promos that they've been adding with remarkable regularity. I started with Carbon Poker where I jumped right in at 100nl and did quite well and banked a $500 profit plus my $120 PSO bonus. Next was Action poker, which I didn't do quite as well at. Even with the $100 deposit bonus, I was only able to claw my way back up to even a little after finishing off the $120 PSO bonus. I didn't really like Action poker - there wasn't enough tables, and I never really felt comfortable. So I was quick to move on. My next promo though was Cake Poker, and it feels much better. Being up $500 plus the $90 PSO bonus doesn't hurt in that respect ... but I'm also rather enjoying the fast bonus clearing rate. So I think I'm going to stick around at Cake for awhile before I move on to my next PSO bonus.

Work is going well. I just moved offices, and have started to get familiar with the code that produced the bots that played in the man-machine match this past summer. I'm super excited to work on the next iteration of these bots ... and even more excited to pit them against the world's best players. At the moment we're trying to lock down some money to challenge some players with. Any ideas where we could get that money? We'd ideally like something on the order of $50K or more to use as prize money. I don't have many ins with people, but if you have any ideas I'd love to hear them.

Diane and I are doing well. We're currently in the midst of wedding plans which are going pretty smoothly I think. We've got several months to go, but we've got a lot of the important things locked up and several others in progress. Hopefully we can have invitations out in a month or so. We've been pretty busy with social stuff too - attending quite a few fun events over the past month. Too many to really recount in a short space here, but the latest was a Chili cook-off. We made some pretty awesome bison chili (if I do say so myself) along with some skillet cornbread, apple crisp, and cookies. Mmm - it was quite a cooking day! We had a lot of fun in the kitchen, and it's making me want to force myself to spend more time cooking on a regular basis. I'd certainly eat better (and healthier) if I did.

The Oilers are maddening to watch at times. The most recent game against the flames was sweet to watch though - now if only we could put together an effort like that on a more consistent basis. I see a lot of potential on our club. If we get a few key members back and contributing, we could have a contender on our hands. I realize it's a lot of ifs, but what else do we have? In particular, I'm really impressed with Robert Nillsson's play. He's been fast, creative, and strong with the puck - I'm starting to get excited every time I see him get the puck. One last thing: what the hell is with the hit on Hemsky? That should've got a suspension for sure! He could've been badly hurt on a play like that!!!!

Not bad for an update post huh? If you've got questions, let me know - I'm feeling a bit lonely in blog land!

Heraldk

Predictions

I'm not going to give my predictions for the upcoming NHL season, although I suppose it has already started officially since there's been a couple of games have been played over in London. I am, however, going to rant a little about the predictions of other "experts". It seems that hockey experts agree that the Oilers have no shot at making the playoffs this year. I have one thing to say: why do these so called "experts" always sell the Oil short? It doesn't seem all that long ago when the Oilers were pushing for the 8th and final playoff spot a couple years ago. They were a team that was fighting it's own potential. I knew the team had a lot of talent, but it seemed that every couple of games, they'd lose a you-should-win-this-game type scenario and they'd slip back a notch. They did it, but barely. In the first round that year, they were up against the high powered Detroit Red Wings. Everyone wrote Edmonton off and had them down in out quickly. Surprise, surprise when the Oil suddenly became the team they were capable of becoming and took down not only Detroit, but San Jose, Anaheim, and almost Carolina en route to the stanley cup final.

Last year was a painful year for the average Oiler fan. The team struggled in mediocrity for most of the season and then got hit by a terrible injury streak that took most of the regulars out of the lineup. As a result, the team skidded to a halt and failed to win most of their remaining games.

The offseason was a high-drama period where the Oilers made a large number of moves and almost completely re-tooled. Powered by the new blue-liners of Pitkanen and Souray, they have far more power on defence than they had last year. Penner adds some size and some scoring punch and Sanderson is a wily veteran who should contribute as well. The real exciting thing for this upcoming season though is the chance for some of the youth to shine. The Oilers have several young players, in addition to Ales Hemsky, who all have a shot of hitting it big this year. These guys include Gagner, Nilsson, Brodziak, Pouliot, and Cogliano. To me, this is super exciting ... and I have a hard time believing that the Oilers are going to have trouble making the playoffs.

But lets take a look at what the experts think. One of the oft-quoted stats from last year is +/-. I'm not sure how they can compare player's +/- stats correctly when these numbers are so very biased on the team they were playing for. For example, Souray and Pitkanen both played on teams that didn't make the playoffs last year. This typically means that those teams got scored on more often than they scored (duh). So take two important defencemen who play big minutes for their teams and put them on clubs that are losing. What happens to their plus minus? It plummets. Whoop-dee-doo. I'm not saying the statistic is meaningless. I'm just saying that you need to make sure you keep in mind what you're trying to compare.

A lot of analysis seems to compare how a team has changed from the previous year. Unfortunately, this also is a problem. How do the experts know that the "winners" of the free agency craziness (the rangers and the flyers) are going to gel and mesh the star players they signed? Who's to say that teams with a bunch of young talent are going to not mesh and start winning games? The past doesn't necessarily tell the future, folks - especially when so much has changed from last season.

One of the things I think many people forget is that the new collective bargaining agreement is giving teams some level ground to play on. It's not completely level, that's for sure, but teams are much more evenly matched than they used to be. Remember the Oiler's heyday way back when they were winning cups every year? That team was so stacked that you had to expect great things from them. Fast forward to today - there are far fewer teams that looked that stacked in comparison. Maybe the penguins look a bit awesome at the moment ... but the division from them to the next closest team is far smaller than for the Oilers back in the day. The salary cap helps balance out the skill players among the teams, and as a result, nearly any team has a chance to do well enough to hit the playoffs. So I don't think last year means nearly as much as the experts seem to think. I also don't think they have ever given the Oilers enough credit.

So I think the Oilers have a good chance of doing well this season, and we'll just have to see how it turns out.

Go Oilers! Heraldk

Jerseys

The NHL this season is introducing the new Reebok Edge jerseys to all 30 teams. The jerseys are much slimmer, and reportedly contain a large number of technological enhancements that are supposed to make players faster on the ice. I'm not sure how much I buy that, but I think they look kind of cool. Many teams in the NHL have taken this opportunity to redesign their jerseys. As usual with this sort of thing, the results have been hit and miss. The Calgary flames new jersey seemed to have riled a large number of Edmontonians because they put the Alberta flag on the shoulder. I don't quite understand why people are upset. Sure, there are two teams in Alberta. Just because the flames are putting the crest on their jersey doesn't mean they are claiming that they are the only Alberta team! I don't really care if they put it on their jersey or not ... in fact it's kind of cool since they're obviously proud to be Albertan. The blue patch does look kinda funny on the red jersey though ...

The Vancouver Canucks' jerseys look pretty good. Except for one really poor detail: they emblazoned a large VANCOUVER on the front of the jersey! WHY? This text looks like somebody was confused at what city they were designing uniforms for and forgot to remove it afterwords. I love the colours of the jersey -- the blue and green look really good together in my opinion. The whale logo isn't my favourite, but the colours were cleaned up and it looks decent.

As for the Oilers ... well I'm not sure yet. They look not too bad, but they seem kinda odd. The vertical striping isn't so terrible, but I'm not the biggest fan of it. The elbows look rather odd too. I guess I'll have to watch a few games to see if I actually like them. We'll see how it goes.

As for the season, I can't wait to watch some games! The Oil made a huge number of changes to their lineup, and I'm excited to see what will happen because of it. I'm cautiously optimistic about our chances this year. The league is getting pretty even and tough across the board which makes it really quite difficult to judge which team will come out on top. I figure, we've got about as good a chance as any!

Heraldk

Baseball

I don't really watch baseball much anymore, but last night I took a look at a television when Diane and I were out with Curtis and Pam. I blinked, and I blinked again, and then I just had to bring up the score into the conversation. The Texas Rangers beat the Baltimore Orioles 30-3. Yes, that is correct and not a typo. The Texas Rangers scored 30 runs in just four of the nine innings, breaking all kinds of records along the way. Apparently it was a scoring fest. There was another big score of 15-3 that night as well, which now seems like a tiny win. Crazy.

Also, I tried a pint of the new Rickard's White beer. It was VERY good! It might be my new favourite beer now.

Heraldk

Oilers and Nylander

Ugh. Why is so much bad stuff happening to Kevin Lowe? Seriously, if the news reports on the Nylander debacle are true, he has every right to be seriously livid over this. What the hell? Here's where this thing hurts the most. Kevin Lowe thinks he's signed the talented player to play on the top line with Ales Hemsky. Now he can move on to fill in other chinks in the Oilers roster. This is just two days after the free agency has kicked in, and teams have grabbed a large portion of the top talent available. Now, a full day later from when Lowe *thought* he had a signing, he now needs to backpedal and see what he can get from the dwindling pool of talent available. At this point, he might have to consider Alexei Yashin ... a player I'm not entirely thrilled to think about in an Oiler uniform. If he doesn't find a player he wants, he's going to have to resort to trading again - which may or may not be possible. *sigh*. I feel real sorry for Kevin Lowe. Seriously. The guy is smart. He's made a lot of smart deals for the Oilers. However, he's gotten seriously screwed over by a couple of things ... the Chris Pronger thing was one, and now this. Not to mention the players who left after the Stanley Cup Finals last year ... despite finishing runners-up to the Carolina Hurricanes, they decided that other hockey teams were better locations. Bleh.

I really respect what Kevin Lowe is doing. His job is not easy. I feel that his Smyth trade was a smart move considering that Smyth seemed to be more interested in the money than signing with his home team. The recent Jason Smith and Joffrey Lupul trade looks like a really good deal on paper to me. Sure, we lose another heart player. We've still got a lot of those! Staios, Stoll and Moreau are awesome heart and soul players for the Oil! In return, we get Pitkanen and Sanderson - both players who I think can contribute.

We'll have to see how things go. The Oilers are still in a position to do well this season. Sure, they need to add a bit more talent ... and Nylander could have been a key piece. However, they still have a lot of young talent that could either prove themselves this year or be tradebait for some top-notch talent. I'm excited to see names like O'Marra, Nilsson, Shremp, Pouliot, Cogliano, and Gagner just about ready to enter the NHL - it's an exciting time for them and I'm looking forward to seeing them develop into good players!

So I say to Oilers fans ... stay patient with K. Lowe. We're in pretty good shape still I think.

Heraldk

A New Edmonton Arena

Anyone who's been reading the journal lately knows that there seems to be an ongoing debate over the council's investigation into building a new arena in downtown Edmonton to replace Rexall Place. There's been a barrage of articles over the past few days pointing out some of the advantages and disadvantages to the proposal ... and I guess I shouldn't be surprised there is such hot debate over the topic. It is, after all, a large investment of city resources. I'm cautiously in favour of a new arena in the downtown core, but I've been waiting to weigh in on the issue until I'd read a few more articles in the paper. I think today's article by Scott McKeen convinces me that it's a good idea, and touches on many of the complaints that people have with the arena.

So, why do we need a new arena? Well the reality of the situation is that Rexall is aging - particularly when compared to arenas in other cities. It's the 2nd oldest building the remains in active use in the NHL. From the Oiler's perspective, its hard to remain competitive if they can't sell as many seats or luxury boxes as other teams. If you've been reading my blog, you know I'm an Oiler fanboy, so you'll know that I'm biased about this from the start. But before you chastise me for being biased, Scott McKeen makes the point that Rexall is not just used for Oiler games... a new arena would be usable to attract some of the world's biggest musical acts as well. Not only that, one should only look back to this time last year when the Oilers were making their unlikely run through the playoffs to know how important the Oilers are to this city. Don't you think they deserve the chance to remain competitive - particularly when a competitive Oiler team makes this city swell with pride?

So I believe a new arena is warranted. So what are the issues? Well cost is one big one. Already though, it looks like there are several options that will require much less taxpayer dollars to build the arena. As the committee looks at it in more detail, we'll see what they come up with. However, several people more in the know than I remain confident that much of the cost can be absorbed from other sources. Sounds good to me.

As to the location - why not build the arena downtown? Downtown is starting to get much more lively as we are finally seeing condos being built in the core. (I'm happy that the city is finally starting to build up a little - the sprawl of this city is kind of disgusting). Building the arena downtown can only help - particularly since the current proposal is to build it in an area of downtown that isn't exactly bustling at the moment. You have to go west of city hall to really see active part of downtown. Thousands of people pouring into downtown to watch the latest hockey game or concert -- sounds like a good plan to get people downtown. The inevitable businesses that pop up around and in the facility will help draw people to arrive downtown early and have them stay late.

To be honest, I am a little biased. And I don't know all the issues. I do however, have a hard time believing that this isn't a good idea for the city. Many articles have pointed at other cities and the success of downtown arenas there -- places like Vancouver and Columbus and Denver and ... well I forget all of them, but there's quite a few. I don't know all the information, but maybe someone can point out to me why a new downtown arena in Edmonton can hurt us.

Heraldk

The Ryan Smyth Trade

Ugh. I hate think that we're giving up on the season. Last year's playoff run was so much fun that I was really hoping we'd be able to get at least one playoff series this year. However, with the Ryan Smyth trade that happened earlier today before the trade deadline, Kevin Lowe is throwing in the towel for this season. The oilers *might* still make the playoffs, but that's looking pretty unlikely given how they played tonight against Phoenix. Reading the Edmonton Oiler forums is mildly entertaining though. People are so attached to Smytty ... and I admit I was too. But fans are so betrayed that Smyth was traded ... but what they don't realize is that Kevin Lowe was put in a rather awkward position. The Oil weren't in good shape to make the playoffs, and the contract negotiations with Smyth weren't going so hot. So what do you do? Keep him for the rest of a season that is unlikely to be a playoff year, and chance that he won't re-sign at the end of the year? Or get what you can get for him and attempt to sign him in the offseason if you'd like to (or go after a higher impact guy if one is available). Seems like a pretty clear decision to me!

The age of franchise players is almost over. The number of players who actually stick with one team their entire career are diminishing quickly. Smyth is really one of the last of his kind ... so I'm sorry fans -- you're gonna have to get used to this.

Now that I've got that out of the way, we can take a look at the trade. I think Kevin Lowe got an amazing deal. He picked up two players who were drafted in the first round, and a first round pick in the upcoming draft. That means we get THREE first round picks in the upcoming draft! Sounds like we're in the position to either get some really good young talent, or trade some young talent for some current talent. As much as I hate the idea that my dear Oil are giving up on the year, I can't complain about this trade that much.

Heraldk

Insane

I've been pretty busy since I got back from Italy, so I haven't had much chance to update here, and those times that I have had a little bit of time I ended up playing poker or doing chores around the house. So ... updates here have been pretty scarce. Anyways, what's happened? The Oilers! Man, they put in a good run didn't they? Just one game away from the stanley cup and they came SOOOO close. A couple bounces didn't go our way and we didn't capitalize on a 5 on 3 powerplay which really was what killed us. But the whole post-season was an enjoyable run, and I'm so very happy they managed to be able to make the run they did. Maybe they'll make it next year?

Poker. I tried playing some no limit, but I think I need to do some reading on it. I had a couple of fantastic days early on winning over $140. Now I've lost it all again. Hmm ... I need to learn some more about no limit I guess!

My research continues slowly. The team is ramping up for a poker competition happening at AAAI (which I am going to, as it happens). So there's some stuff I've got to do for that. Also, my thesis really needs writing so that's starting to get more of my attention. I leave for Boston to attend AAAI on the 15th of July and I get back on the 27th. A few of my friends are going to spend a week in New York while we're in the area, so that should be fun.

I do plan on finishing my Italy journal entries, but they take awhile to type and when I'm not home for long before I have to head for bed nightly I'm gonna need a little while to get myself back into the blogging routine.

Anyways, more updates to come. Oh, and new photo will be up on my photoblog soon.

Heraldk

Alive in Italy

Well I've been meaning to post here about my experiences in Italy thus far. But I haven't had an internet connection where I've had the chance to relax and just browse the 'net let alone post about my experiences thsu far. I promise - posts are coming. I have text written, I just need some time to edit it and make it more readable rather than a slew of messy notes. For now, with just a single full day left before I make the long flight home, just know that I'm doing great! I am also very excited to see the Oilers play in the Stanley cup final!!!!

Heraldk